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Trump greets Lifeguard Ryder Williams

What will Trump say during his announcement?

Held

Mon, Aug 17

1:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks During a Greeting With California State Parks Lifeguard Ryder Williams and an Exchange With Reporters

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +1 later

8 said 19 not said of 27 words

Not held 26 of 305 past Trump events, 11 of 171 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 376 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore28¢ All13/62 21% Speeches / ceremonies12/36 33% Official speeches / ceremonies62/376 16% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore23¢ All48/124 39% Speeches / ceremonies33/68 49% Official speeches / ceremonies117/376 31% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore10¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies19/376 5% N
NO Before startBefore26¢ All19/57 33% Speeches / ceremonies10/34 29% Official speeches / ceremonies50/376 13% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore30¢ All24/62 39% Speeches / ceremonies17/36 47% Official speeches / ceremonies46/376 12% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore59¢ All189/254 74% Speeches / ceremonies106/145 73% Official speeches / ceremonies241/376 64% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore11¢ All8/65 12% Speeches / ceremonies2/30 7% Official speeches / ceremonies30/376 8% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore42¢ All33/54 61% Speeches / ceremonies21/32 66% Official speeches / ceremonies198/376 53% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore34¢ All24/52 46% Speeches / ceremonies14/25 56% Official speeches / ceremonies51/376 14% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore5¢ All9/192 5% Speeches / ceremonies7/113 6% Official speeches / ceremonies19/376 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore79¢ All120/173 69% Speeches / ceremonies63/96 66% Official speeches / ceremonies202/376 54% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore31¢ All12/33 36% Speeches / ceremonies8/16 50% Official speeches / ceremonies17/376 5% N Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore37¢ All50/92 54% Speeches / ceremonies29/52 56% Official speeches / ceremonies136/376 36% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore21¢ All17/58 29% Speeches / ceremonies12/32 38% Official speeches / ceremonies66/376 18% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore20¢ All18/32 56% Speeches / ceremonies14/22 64% Official speeches / ceremonies59/376 16% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore59¢ All17/60 28% Speeches / ceremonies7/30 23% Official speeches / ceremonies27/376 7% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore38¢ All120/229 52% Speeches / ceremonies87/132 66% Official speeches / ceremonies153/376 41% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore53¢ All36/47 77% Speeches / ceremonies18/26 69% Official speeches / ceremonies104/376 28% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore39¢ All40/76 53% Speeches / ceremonies17/44 39% Official speeches / ceremonies106/376 28% Y N N Y N
NO Before startBefore13¢ All12/29 41% Speeches / ceremonies6/12 50% Official speeches / ceremonies88/376 23% Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore72¢ All17/38 45% Speeches / ceremonies6/16 38% Official speeches / ceremonies88/376 23% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore71¢ All42/72 58% Speeches / ceremonies23/35 66% Official speeches / ceremonies184/376 49% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore52¢ All34/75 45% Speeches / ceremonies23/43 53% Official speeches / ceremonies97/376 26% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All19/38 50% Speeches / ceremonies6/14 43% Official speeches / ceremonies37/376 10% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore39¢ All67/131 51% Speeches / ceremonies38/73 52% Official speeches / ceremonies105/376 28% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore31¢ All113/169 67% Speeches / ceremonies72/100 72% Official speeches / ceremonies206/376 55% Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore16¢ All34/100 34% Speeches / ceremonies20/61 33% Official speeches / ceremonies82/376 22% Y Y N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • For the purposes of this market, “next White House livestream” refers to the first livestream on the White House main YouTube channel (@WhiteHouse) after August 12th, 2026 at 10:35 pm ET (excluding Remarks in Nassau County, New York).
  • The livestream will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
  • If Donald Trump is present during a livestream, but does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
  • Additional source agency streams can be used in the event of technical outages or if the White House ends the stream prior to the conclusion of the event.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of next White House livestream (excluding Remarks in Nassau County, New York), then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the next White House livestream (excluding Remarks in Nassau County, New York) will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the next White House livestream (excluding Remarks in Nassau County, New York) will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
For the purposes of this market, “next White House livestream” refers to the first livestream on the White House main YouTube channel (@WhiteHouse) after August 12th, 2026 at 10:35 pm ET (excluding Remarks in Nassau County, New York). The livestream will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is present during a livestream, but does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Additional source agency streams can be used in the event of technical outages or if the White House ends the stream prior to the conclusion of the event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Cases

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