mentions

Trump makes an announcement

What will Trump say during his announcement?

Held

Thu, Jan 29

4:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +2 later

2 said 26 not said of 28 words

Not held 13 of 146 past Trump events, 7 of 84 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 258 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore46¢ All18/41 44% Speeches / ceremonies10/22 45% Official speeches / ceremonies27/258 10% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore26¢ All13/24 54% Speeches / ceremonies11/15 73% Official speeches / ceremonies81/258 31% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore50¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/258 0% —
NO Before startBefore72¢ All96/120 80% Speeches / ceremonies54/69 78% Official speeches / ceremonies166/258 64% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore57¢ All53/77 69% Speeches / ceremonies35/49 71% Official speeches / ceremonies138/258 53% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore64¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies5/258 2% —
NO Before startBefore32¢ All4/9 44% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies66/258 26% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore8¢ All3/61 5% Speeches / ceremonies3/37 8% Official speeches / ceremonies13/258 5% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore63¢ All10/21 48% Speeches / ceremonies4/10 40% Official speeches / ceremonies85/258 33% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore62¢ All34/50 68% Speeches / ceremonies22/32 69% Official speeches / ceremonies150/258 58% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore69¢ All3/10 30% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies36/258 14% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore33¢ All1/5 20% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies47/258 18% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore19¢ All8/15 53% Speeches / ceremonies2/7 29% Official speeches / ceremonies10/258 4% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore62¢ All11/15 73% Speeches / ceremonies8/10 80% Official speeches / ceremonies37/258 14% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore31¢ All4/8 50% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies128/258 50% Y N N Y N
NO Before startBefore42¢ All57/94 61% Speeches / ceremonies40/53 75% Official speeches / ceremonies99/258 38% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore57¢ All6/14 43% Speeches / ceremonies1/8 13% Official speeches / ceremonies77/258 30% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore58¢ All11/17 65% Speeches / ceremonies7/10 70% Official speeches / ceremonies117/258 45% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore52¢ All17/22 77% Speeches / ceremonies9/12 75% Official speeches / ceremonies81/258 31% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore29¢ All44/61 72% Speeches / ceremonies21/32 66% Official speeches / ceremonies83/258 32% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore19¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies8/258 3% N Y
NO Before startBefore35¢ All15/34 44% Speeches / ceremonies7/19 37% Official speeches / ceremonies62/258 24% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore12¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies8/258 3% N Y
NO Before startBefore78¢ All16/44 36% Speeches / ceremonies6/23 26% Official speeches / ceremonies28/258 11% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore11¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies8/258 3% N
NO Before startBefore24¢ All2/8 25% Speeches / ceremonies0/6 0% Official speeches / ceremonies29/258 11% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore71¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies58/258 22% —
NO Before startBefore17¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies34/258 13% N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • Plural nouns used as or within a proper nouns (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
  • Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Announcement on January 29th, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Announcement on January 29th will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Announcement on January 29th will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Plural nouns used as or within a proper nouns (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included. Please see full rules for more details. For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event. Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count. If this event is not opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event this market will resolve to no.

Cases

All cases of this speaker