mentions

Trump holds an address to the nation

What will Trump say during his Address to the Nation?

Held

Wed, Dec 17

9:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Address to the Nation on the Economy

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Also now Trump Trump +1 later

15 said 11 not said of 26 words

Not held 9 of 114 past Trump events, 5 of 67 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 239 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore73¢ All8/18 44% Speeches / ceremonies5/11 45% Official speeches / ceremonies21/239 9% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore66¢ All5/12 42% Speeches / ceremonies4/7 57% Official speeches / ceremonies71/239 30% Y N Y N N
YES Before startBefore53¢ All4/12 33% Speeches / ceremonies3/11 27% Official speeches / ceremonies29/239 12% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore87¢ All76/93 82% Speeches / ceremonies44/55 80% Official speeches / ceremonies155/239 65% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore82¢ All7/12 58% Speeches / ceremonies5/8 63% Official speeches / ceremonies56/239 23% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore63¢ All43/60 72% Speeches / ceremonies29/41 71% Official speeches / ceremonies129/239 54% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore84¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies8/239 3% Y
NO Before startBefore18¢ All2/40 5% Speeches / ceremonies2/25 8% Official speeches / ceremonies12/239 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore56¢ All0/6 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/5 0% Official speeches / ceremonies3/239 1% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore94¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies95/239 40% —
YES Before startBefore61¢ All5/8 63% Speeches / ceremonies4/7 57% Official speeches / ceremonies22/239 9% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore72¢ All29/44 66% Speeches / ceremonies18/28 64% Official speeches / ceremonies136/239 57% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore12¢ All2/14 14% Speeches / ceremonies0/8 0% Official speeches / ceremonies1/239 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore83¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies35/239 15% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore44¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies21/239 9% Y
NO Before startBefore59¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies4/239 2% Y
YES Before startBefore76¢ All8/12 67% Speeches / ceremonies5/7 71% Official speeches / ceremonies27/239 11% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore66¢ All42/71 59% Speeches / ceremonies31/42 74% Official speeches / ceremonies86/239 36% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore75¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies70/239 29% N N
NO Before startBefore62¢ All0/11 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/5 0% Official speeches / ceremonies3/239 1% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore66¢ All11/16 69% Speeches / ceremonies8/10 80% Official speeches / ceremonies80/239 33% Y Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore60¢ All26/38 68% Speeches / ceremonies15/22 68% Official speeches / ceremonies75/239 31% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore90¢ All48/64 75% Speeches / ceremonies29/37 78% Official speeches / ceremonies130/239 54% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore61¢ All13/24 54% Speeches / ceremonies7/16 44% Official speeches / ceremonies93/239 39% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore86¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies45/239 19% N N N
NO Before startBefore57¢ All5/21 24% Speeches / ceremonies2/13 15% Official speeches / ceremonies61/239 26% Y N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Address to the Nation on December 17th, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Address to the Nation on December 17th will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Address to the Nation on December 17th will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count. Previous recordings aired during this event will not count.

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