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Trump holds Tele-Rally with Michael Alfonso

What will Trump say during his Tele-Rally with Michael Alfonso?

Held

Wed, Jul 29

7:00 PM ET /

Trump

Tele-rally

Official transcript Remarks During a Telerally for Wisconsin Republican Congressional Candidate Michael Alfonso

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +2 later

7 said 14 not said of 21 words

Not held 26 of 289 past Trump events, 0 of 12 tele-rallies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Tele-rallies Official tele-rallies · 16 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore7¢ All10/47 21% Tele-rallies0/7 0% Official tele-rallies3/16 19% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore5¢ All44/108 41% Tele-rallies0/6 0% Official tele-rallies0/16 0% N Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore53¢ All15/43 35% Tele-rallies4/7 57% Official tele-rallies3/16 19% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore85¢ All179/239 75% Tele-rallies10/12 83% Official tele-rallies11/16 69% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore41¢ All15/38 39% Tele-rallies1/4 25% small n Official tele-rallies4/16 25% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore2¢ All8/177 5% Tele-rallies0/7 0% Official tele-rallies0/16 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore55¢ All111/161 69% Tele-rallies8/11 73% Official tele-rallies13/16 81% N Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore10¢ All10/29 34% Tele-rallies0/2 0% small n Official tele-rallies0/16 0% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore93¢ All1/1 100% Tele-rallies— Official tele-rallies11/16 69% Y
NO Before startBefore12¢ All44/77 57% Tele-rallies0/2 0% small n Official tele-rallies0/16 0% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore9¢ All14/44 32% Tele-rallies1/6 17% Official tele-rallies2/16 13% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore26¢ All116/213 54% Tele-rallies2/11 18% Official tele-rallies2/16 13% N Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore47¢ All13/19 68% Tele-rallies1/4 25% small n Official tele-rallies5/16 31% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore40¢ All12/19 63% Tele-rallies3/7 43% Official tele-rallies4/16 25% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore50¢ All8/22 36% Tele-rallies2/8 25% Official tele-rallies3/16 19% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore23¢ All32/56 57% Tele-rallies1/7 14% Official tele-rallies7/16 44% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore36¢ All30/66 45% Tele-rallies5/8 63% Official tele-rallies10/16 63% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore66¢ All12/28 43% Tele-rallies5/6 83% Official tele-rallies5/16 31% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore12¢ All61/116 53% Tele-rallies2/8 25% Official tele-rallies4/16 25% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore14¢ All105/154 68% Tele-rallies1/3 33% small n Official tele-rallies2/16 13% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore50¢ All28/86 33% Tele-rallies4/8 50% Official tele-rallies11/16 69% N N Y N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official tele-rallies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Tele-rallies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Tele-Rally with Michael Alfonso, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Tele-Rally with Michael Alfonso will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Tele-Rally with Michael Alfonso will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
Additional content not included in the original call will not count.
The entirety of content within the original call will be used for resolution.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify — Donald Trump must be speaking in an official capacity for the Contract to resolve Yes (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, or unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic, do not qualify).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker