mentions

Trump delivers remarks at General Motors

What will Trump say during his remarks at General Motors?

Held

Mon, Jul 27

2:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks on the United States Automobile Industry in Milford, Michigan

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Also now Trump +2 later

28 said 6 not said of 34 words

Not held 24 of 282 past Trump events, 11 of 161 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 364 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore80¢ All9/44 20% Speeches / ceremonies9/28 32% Official speeches / ceremonies59/364 16% N Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore68¢ All42/103 41% Speeches / ceremonies29/58 50% Official speeches / ceremonies113/364 31% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore54¢ All20/49 41% Speeches / ceremonies13/28 46% Official speeches / ceremonies42/364 12% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore94¢ All174/234 74% Speeches / ceremonies99/136 73% Official speeches / ceremonies233/364 64% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore8¢ All8/54 15% Speeches / ceremonies2/23 9% Official speeches / ceremonies30/364 8% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore52¢ All1/5 20% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies61/364 17% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore93¢ All25/34 74% Speeches / ceremonies17/22 77% Official speeches / ceremonies194/364 53% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore87¢ All13/33 39% Speeches / ceremonies9/17 53% Official speeches / ceremonies46/364 13% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore5¢ All8/172 5% Speeches / ceremonies7/103 7% Official speeches / ceremonies19/364 5% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore92¢ All108/156 69% Speeches / ceremonies59/90 66% Official speeches / ceremonies196/364 54% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore30¢ All8/22 36% Speeches / ceremonies5/17 29% Official speeches / ceremonies35/364 10% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore78¢ All9/24 38% Speeches / ceremonies6/13 46% Official speeches / ceremonies14/364 4% Y N Y N N
YES Before startBefore95¢ All67/99 68% Speeches / ceremonies44/63 70% Official speeches / ceremonies219/364 60% Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore50¢ All2/12 17% Speeches / ceremonies1/10 10% Official speeches / ceremonies41/364 11% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore90¢ All4/6 67% Speeches / ceremonies4/6 67% Official speeches / ceremonies68/364 19% N Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore84¢ All43/74 58% Speeches / ceremonies25/43 58% Official speeches / ceremonies131/364 36% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore85¢ All18/29 62% Speeches / ceremonies12/17 71% Official speeches / ceremonies158/364 43% N Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore91¢ All20/34 59% Speeches / ceremonies14/23 61% Official speeches / ceremonies122/364 34% Y Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore92¢ All113/208 54% Speeches / ceremonies82/122 67% Official speeches / ceremonies148/364 41% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore75¢ All28/35 80% Speeches / ceremonies13/18 72% Official speeches / ceremonies98/364 27% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore33¢ All36/65 55% Speeches / ceremonies16/37 43% Official speeches / ceremonies105/364 29% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore62¢ All11/16 69% Speeches / ceremonies8/10 80% Official speeches / ceremonies78/364 21% N Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore80¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies35/364 10% N N
YES Before startBefore79¢ All7/19 37% Speeches / ceremonies3/9 33% Official speeches / ceremonies85/364 23% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore92¢ All55/83 66% Speeches / ceremonies28/46 61% Official speeches / ceremonies142/364 39% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore80¢ All29/63 46% Speeches / ceremonies18/38 47% Official speeches / ceremonies92/364 25% N N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore87¢ All7/9 78% Speeches / ceremonies6/6 100% Official speeches / ceremonies32/364 9% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore88¢ All59/111 53% Speeches / ceremonies35/64 55% Official speeches / ceremonies102/364 28% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore25¢ All16/50 32% Speeches / ceremonies12/33 36% Official speeches / ceremonies77/364 21% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore96¢ All101/149 68% Speeches / ceremonies66/91 73% Official speeches / ceremonies198/364 54% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore72¢ All26/81 32% Speeches / ceremonies17/52 33% Official speeches / ceremonies79/364 22% N N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All6/9 67% Speeches / ceremonies5/7 71% Official speeches / ceremonies17/364 5% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore87¢ All23/31 74% Speeches / ceremonies16/22 73% Official speeches / ceremonies115/364 32% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore24¢ All7/21 33% Speeches / ceremonies4/14 29% Official speeches / ceremonies24/364 7% Y Y N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify — Donald Trump must be speaking in an official capacity for the Contract to resolve Yes (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, or unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic, do not qualify).

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Remarks at General Motors in Milford, Michigan, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Remarks at General Motors in Milford, Michigan will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Remarks at General Motors in Milford, Michigan will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify — Donald Trump must be speaking in an official capacity for the Contract to resolve Yes (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, or unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic, do not qualify).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

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