mentions

Trump say during the Swearing-In Ceremony for Kevin Warsh

What will Trump say during the Swearing-In Ceremony for the Chairman of the Federal Reserve?

Held

Fri, May 22

11:00 AM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at a Swearing-in Ceremony for Kevin M. Warsh as Chairman of the Federal Reserve System Board of Governors

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Also now Trump +1 later

10 said 16 not said of 26 words

Not held 21 of 228 past Trump events, 10 of 137 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 329 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore39¢ All2/15 13% Speeches / ceremonies2/10 20% Official speeches / ceremonies50/329 15% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore27¢ All1/8 13% Speeches / ceremonies1/8 13% Official speeches / ceremonies26/329 8% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore8¢ All2/12 17% Speeches / ceremonies1/8 13% Official speeches / ceremonies27/329 8% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore56¢ All137/187 73% Speeches / ceremonies80/113 71% Official speeches / ceremonies208/329 63% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore11¢ All7/31 23% Speeches / ceremonies2/15 13% Official speeches / ceremonies29/329 9% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore43¢ All3/3 100% Speeches / ceremonies3/3 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies174/329 53% Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore14¢ All5/124 4% Speeches / ceremonies5/81 6% Official speeches / ceremonies17/329 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore69¢ All5/5 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies250/329 76% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore46¢ All83/118 70% Speeches / ceremonies48/73 66% Official speeches / ceremonies176/329 53% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore85¢ All2/3 67% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies135/329 41% Y N Y
NO Before startBefore43¢ All7/12 58% Speeches / ceremonies5/10 50% Official speeches / ceremonies51/329 16% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore68¢ All50/73 68% Speeches / ceremonies35/49 71% Official speeches / ceremonies197/329 60% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore64¢ All4/5 80% Speeches / ceremonies4/5 80% Official speeches / ceremonies138/329 42% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore54¢ All4/15 27% Speeches / ceremonies3/8 38% Official speeches / ceremonies22/329 7% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore52¢ All91/163 56% Speeches / ceremonies67/101 66% Official speeches / ceremonies131/329 40% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore64¢ All10/15 67% Speeches / ceremonies7/8 88% Official speeches / ceremonies134/329 41% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore25¢ All15/29 52% Speeches / ceremonies9/21 43% Official speeches / ceremonies92/329 28% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore50¢ All67/96 70% Speeches / ceremonies36/55 65% Official speeches / ceremonies127/329 39% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore39¢ All27/51 53% Speeches / ceremonies15/32 47% Official speeches / ceremonies118/329 36% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore62¢ All1/4 25% Speeches / ceremonies0/3 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies20/329 6% N N Y N
NO Before startBefore39¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies11/329 3% N N
YES Before startBefore67¢ All36/62 58% Speeches / ceremonies24/42 57% Official speeches / ceremonies86/329 26% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore55¢ All85/125 68% Speeches / ceremonies55/78 71% Official speeches / ceremonies181/329 55% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore61¢ All4/14 29% Speeches / ceremonies1/9 11% Official speeches / ceremonies35/329 11% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore15¢ All12/42 29% Speeches / ceremonies9/32 28% Official speeches / ceremonies67/329 20% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore56¢ All65/83 78% Speeches / ceremonies47/56 84% Official speeches / ceremonies176/329 53% Y N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Swearing-In Ceremony for the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Swearing-In Ceremony for the Chairman of the Federal Reserve will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Swearing-In Ceremony for the Chairman of the Federal Reserve will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

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