mentions

Trump joins The Axios Show

What will Trump say during The Axios Show?

Held

Fri, Jun 19

2:00 PM ET /

Trump

Interview

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +2 later

15 said 12 not said of 27 words

Not held 23 of 248 past Trump events, 1 of 29 interviews

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Interviews Official interviews · 2 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore71¢ All21/37 57% Interviews1/3 33% small n Official interviews0/2 0% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore81¢ All5/25 20% Interviews0/3 0% small n Official interviews0/2 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore65¢ All32/76 42% Interviews4/14 29% Official interviews0/2 0% N Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore95¢ All3/17 18% Interviews0/2 0% small n Official interviews0/2 0% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore67¢ All150/204 74% Interviews19/26 73% Official interviews1/2 50% N Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore97¢ All4/10 40% Interviews3/4 75% small n Official interviews0/2 0% N Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore82¢ All11/13 85% Interviews1/2 50% small n Official interviews1/2 50% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore23¢ All5/140 4% Interviews0/22 0% Official interviews0/2 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore67¢ All2/5 40% Interviews— Official interviews0/2 0% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore85¢ All94/133 71% Interviews14/16 88% Official interviews1/2 50% N Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore82¢ All6/22 27% Interviews1/3 33% small n Official interviews0/2 0% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore67¢ All3/5 60% Interviews— Official interviews0/2 0% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore81¢ All6/20 30% Interviews0/1 0% small n Official interviews0/2 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore90¢ All10/33 30% Interviews4/6 67% Official interviews0/2 0% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore60¢ All98/177 55% Interviews8/22 36% Official interviews0/2 0% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore95¢ All16/17 94% Interviews4/4 100% small n Official interviews0/2 0% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore96¢ All22/43 51% Interviews6/7 86% Official interviews0/2 0% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore78¢ All19/40 48% Interviews4/4 100% small n Official interviews0/2 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore91¢ All12/24 50% Interviews3/4 75% small n Official interviews1/2 50% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore95¢ All35/60 58% Interviews5/6 83% Official interviews0/2 0% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore51¢ All0/1 0% Interviews— Official interviews0/2 0% N
YES Before startBefore85¢ All5/7 71% Interviews1/1 100% small n Official interviews1/2 50% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore90¢ All47/79 59% Interviews10/14 71% Official interviews0/2 0% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore51¢ All— Interviews— Official interviews1/2 50% —
NO Before startBefore76¢ All1/9 11% Interviews1/3 33% small n Official interviews0/2 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore87¢ All24/46 52% Interviews2/3 67% small n Official interviews0/2 0% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore24¢ All2/4 50% Interviews0/1 0% small n Official interviews0/2 0% N Y Y N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official interviews: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Interviews. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • For the purpose of this market, the entirety of content within the original broadcast or release will be used for resolution.
  • If Donald Trump is or is not present and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of The Axios Show, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the The Axios Show will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the The Axios Show will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the entirety of content within the original broadcast or release will be used for resolution.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker