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Trump signs a proclamation

What will Trump say during his proclamation?

Held

Tue, May 5

10:30 AM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks on Signing a Proclamation on National Physical Fitness and Sports Month and an Exchange With Reporters

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now +1 later

14 said 20 not said of 34 words

Not held 20 of 212 past Trump events, 10 of 127 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 314 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore39¢ All13/18 72% Speeches / ceremonies11/14 79% Official speeches / ceremonies81/314 26% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore23¢ All24/50 48% Speeches / ceremonies19/34 56% Official speeches / ceremonies97/314 31% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore17¢ All1/7 14% Speeches / ceremonies1/7 14% Official speeches / ceremonies25/314 8% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore7¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies10/314 3% Y N
NO Before startBefore27¢ All7/22 32% Speeches / ceremonies6/15 40% Official speeches / ceremonies55/314 18% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore35¢ All14/37 38% Speeches / ceremonies10/29 34% Official speeches / ceremonies34/314 11% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore18¢ All0/7 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/5 0% Official speeches / ceremonies14/314 4% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore72¢ All130/173 75% Speeches / ceremonies76/104 73% Official speeches / ceremonies201/314 64% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore42¢ All7/23 30% Speeches / ceremonies2/10 20% Official speeches / ceremonies28/314 9% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore38¢ All70/106 66% Speeches / ceremonies45/70 64% Official speeches / ceremonies163/314 52% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore4¢ All5/110 5% Speeches / ceremonies5/72 7% Official speeches / ceremonies17/314 5% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore33¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies15/314 5% —
YES Before startBefore74¢ All79/106 75% Speeches / ceremonies44/63 70% Official speeches / ceremonies171/314 54% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore22¢ All30/47 64% Speeches / ceremonies16/28 57% Official speeches / ceremonies43/314 14% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore16¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies1/314 0% —
YES Before startBefore41¢ All19/34 56% Speeches / ceremonies10/22 45% Official speeches / ceremonies106/314 34% Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore26¢ All6/21 29% Speeches / ceremonies6/15 40% Official speeches / ceremonies58/314 18% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore18¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies54/314 17% Y
NO Before startBefore24¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies51/314 16% N
NO Before startBefore21¢ All14/21 67% Speeches / ceremonies11/16 69% Official speeches / ceremonies49/314 16% N Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore37¢ All82/148 55% Speeches / ceremonies59/91 65% Official speeches / ceremonies122/314 39% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore86¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies122/314 39% N N
YES Before startBefore42¢ All13/22 59% Speeches / ceremonies7/15 47% Official speeches / ceremonies88/314 28% N Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore45¢ All1/8 13% Speeches / ceremonies1/8 13% Official speeches / ceremonies22/314 7% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore41¢ All4/14 29% Speeches / ceremonies2/11 18% Official speeches / ceremonies75/314 24% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore12¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies22/314 7% Y
YES Before startBefore70¢ All58/84 69% Speeches / ceremonies30/47 64% Official speeches / ceremonies116/314 37% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore67¢ All25/47 53% Speeches / ceremonies13/28 46% Official speeches / ceremonies111/314 35% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore13¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies1/314 0% —
NO Before startBefore35¢ All82/116 71% Speeches / ceremonies54/73 74% Official speeches / ceremonies175/314 56% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore26¢ All5/11 45% Speeches / ceremonies4/7 57% Official speeches / ceremonies64/314 20% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore29¢ All9/34 26% Speeches / ceremonies7/25 28% Official speeches / ceremonies63/314 20% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore17¢ All2/3 67% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies14/314 4% Y Y N
YES Before startBefore28¢ All1/6 17% Speeches / ceremonies1/6 17% Official speeches / ceremonies48/314 15% N N N N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of The President signs a Proclamation, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the The President signs a Proclamation will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the The President signs a Proclamation will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker