mentions

Trump Rose Garden remarks

What will Trump say during his remarks at the Rose Garden?

Held

Fri, May 8

12:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at a Mother's Day Luncheon

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +2 later

2 said 29 not said of 31 words

Not held 21 of 215 past Trump events, 10 of 129 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 318 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore13¢ All22/60 37% Speeches / ceremonies12/34 35% Official speeches / ceremonies34/318 11% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore29¢ All2/10 20% Speeches / ceremonies1/6 17% Official speeches / ceremonies26/318 8% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore10¢ All0/8 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/6 0% Official speeches / ceremonies14/318 4% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore82¢ All131/175 75% Speeches / ceremonies77/106 73% Official speeches / ceremonies203/318 64% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore64¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies9/318 3% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All7/24 29% Speeches / ceremonies2/11 18% Official speeches / ceremonies29/318 9% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore62¢ All72/108 67% Speeches / ceremonies47/72 65% Official speeches / ceremonies166/318 52% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore18¢ All4/9 44% Speeches / ceremonies3/7 43% Official speeches / ceremonies13/318 4% Y N N Y N
NO Before startBefore82¢ All80/108 74% Speeches / ceremonies45/65 69% Official speeches / ceremonies172/318 54% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore13¢ All7/13 54% Speeches / ceremonies5/10 50% Official speeches / ceremonies34/318 11% Y N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore75¢ All20/35 57% Speeches / ceremonies11/23 48% Official speeches / ceremonies109/318 34% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore44¢ All12/20 60% Speeches / ceremonies8/12 67% Official speeches / ceremonies111/318 35% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore10¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies2/318 1% —
NO Before startBefore35¢ All7/20 35% Speeches / ceremonies3/11 27% Official speeches / ceremonies14/318 4% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore63¢ All84/150 56% Speeches / ceremonies61/93 66% Official speeches / ceremonies124/318 39% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore37¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies21/318 7% —
NO Before startBefore95¢ All38/55 69% Speeches / ceremonies25/39 64% Official speeches / ceremonies124/318 39% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore38¢ All14/24 58% Speeches / ceremonies8/17 47% Official speeches / ceremonies89/318 28% N Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore24¢ All19/34 56% Speeches / ceremonies5/18 28% Official speeches / ceremonies63/318 20% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore63¢ All9/12 75% Speeches / ceremonies3/5 60% Official speeches / ceremonies71/318 22% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore80¢ All60/86 70% Speeches / ceremonies32/49 65% Official speeches / ceremonies120/318 38% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore— All5/6 83% Speeches / ceremonies4/4 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies55/318 17% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore32¢ All15/25 60% Speeches / ceremonies10/16 63% Official speeches / ceremonies107/318 34% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore10¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies8/318 3% N
NO Before startBefore59¢ All82/117 70% Speeches / ceremonies54/74 73% Official speeches / ceremonies176/318 55% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore69¢ All64/78 82% Speeches / ceremonies46/53 87% Official speeches / ceremonies173/318 54% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore24¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies2/318 1% Y
NO Before startBefore58¢ All21/40 53% Speeches / ceremonies13/29 45% Official speeches / ceremonies108/318 34% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore— All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies42/318 13% N
NO Before startBefore— All2/7 29% Speeches / ceremonies2/7 29% Official speeches / ceremonies49/318 15% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore22¢ All4/7 57% Speeches / ceremonies4/6 67% Official speeches / ceremonies68/318 21% Y Y Y Y N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Remarks at the Rose Garden, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Remarks at the Rose Garden will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Remarks at the Rose Garden will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker