mentions

Trump signs an executive order in the Rose Garden

What will Trump say during his announcement?

Held

Mon, Oct 19

11:00 AM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Bernie Sanders Trump +2 later

5 said 20 not said of 25 words

Not held 27 of 356 past Trump events, 12 of 198 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 403 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore7¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies9/403 2% —
NO Before startBefore46¢ All31/100 31% Speeches / ceremonies17/52 33% Official speeches / ceremonies67/403 17% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore44¢ All60/170 35% Speeches / ceremonies39/91 43% Official speeches / ceremonies123/403 31% N Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore8¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies1/403 0% —
NO Before startBefore32¢ All211/291 73% Speeches / ceremonies120/170 71% Official speeches / ceremonies253/403 63% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore66¢ All2/4 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies282/403 70% Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore30¢ All64/98 65% Speeches / ceremonies37/54 69% Official speeches / ceremonies215/403 53% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore2¢ All9/232 4% Speeches / ceremonies7/132 5% Official speeches / ceremonies19/403 5% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore17¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies68/403 17% Y
NO Before startBefore7¢ All13/46 28% Speeches / ceremonies6/22 27% Official speeches / ceremonies54/403 13% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore20¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies11/403 3% —
YES Before startBefore72¢ All34/55 62% Speeches / ceremonies17/31 55% Official speeches / ceremonies64/403 16% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore8¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies48/403 12% —
NO Before startBefore59¢ All18/24 75% Speeches / ceremonies12/16 75% Official speeches / ceremonies193/403 48% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore30¢ All22/36 61% Speeches / ceremonies15/21 71% Official speeches / ceremonies186/403 46% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore14¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies124/403 31% —
NO Before startBefore4¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies3/6 50% Official speeches / ceremonies14/403 3% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore5¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies18/403 4% N
NO Before startBefore7¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/403 0% —
NO Before startBefore38¢ All83/164 51% Speeches / ceremonies48/94 51% Official speeches / ceremonies115/403 29% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore59¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/403 1% N Y N
NO Before startBefore5¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies17/403 4% —
NO Before startBefore20¢ All129/200 65% Speeches / ceremonies84/121 69% Official speeches / ceremonies219/403 54% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore18¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies124/403 31% N Y
NO Before startBefore7¢ All2/17 12% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies24/403 6% N N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Executive Order Signing Ceremony and Announcement originally scheduled for October 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Executive Order Signing Ceremony and Announcement originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Executive Order Signing Ceremony and Announcement originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker