mentions

Trump hosts Rose Garden Event

What will Trump say during his Rose Garden Event?

Held

Mon, Aug 24

2:30 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at a White House Back-to-School Event

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +2 later

10 said 16 not said of 26 words

Not held 27 of 308 past Trump events, 12 of 173 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 378 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore41¢ All14/64 22% Speeches / ceremonies12/37 32% Official speeches / ceremonies62/378 16% Y N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore24¢ All48/126 38% Speeches / ceremonies33/69 48% Official speeches / ceremonies117/378 31% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore25¢ All20/59 34% Speeches / ceremonies10/35 29% Official speeches / ceremonies50/378 13% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore7¢ All24/64 38% Speeches / ceremonies17/37 46% Official speeches / ceremonies46/378 12% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore68¢ All191/256 75% Speeches / ceremonies107/146 73% Official speeches / ceremonies242/378 64% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore91¢ All20/28 71% Speeches / ceremonies18/23 78% Official speeches / ceremonies101/378 27% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore3¢ All8/67 12% Speeches / ceremonies2/31 6% Official speeches / ceremonies30/378 8% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore23¢ All35/56 63% Speeches / ceremonies22/33 67% Official speeches / ceremonies200/378 53% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore2¢ All9/194 5% Speeches / ceremonies7/114 6% Official speeches / ceremonies19/378 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore78¢ All121/174 70% Speeches / ceremonies64/97 66% Official speeches / ceremonies203/378 54% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore41¢ All72/109 66% Speeches / ceremonies45/69 65% Official speeches / ceremonies224/378 59% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore40¢ All52/94 55% Speeches / ceremonies30/53 57% Official speeches / ceremonies137/378 36% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore29¢ All17/60 28% Speeches / ceremonies12/33 36% Official speeches / ceremonies66/378 17% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore12¢ All18/62 29% Speeches / ceremonies7/31 23% Official speeches / ceremonies27/378 7% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore12¢ All38/49 78% Speeches / ceremonies19/27 70% Official speeches / ceremonies106/378 28% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore23¢ All13/31 42% Speeches / ceremonies6/13 46% Official speeches / ceremonies88/378 23% Y N Y N N
YES Before startBefore34¢ All2/7 29% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies43/378 11% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore25¢ All44/74 59% Speeches / ceremonies24/36 67% Official speeches / ceremonies186/378 49% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore48¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/378 0% —
YES Before startBefore37¢ All36/77 47% Speeches / ceremonies24/44 55% Official speeches / ceremonies98/378 26% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore82¢ All2/4 50% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies13/378 3% Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore21¢ All113/170 66% Speeches / ceremonies72/101 71% Official speeches / ceremonies207/378 55% N Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore87¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies117/378 31% —
YES Before startBefore91¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies10/378 3% —
YES Before startBefore56¢ All35/102 34% Speeches / ceremonies20/62 32% Official speeches / ceremonies82/378 22% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore75¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies0/378 0% N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • Video of the Rose Garden Event using the live broadcast or stream.
  • If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Rose Garden Event will be used.
  • The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
  • Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
  • Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
  • For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.
  • Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
  • Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Rose Garden Event, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Rose Garden Event using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Rose Garden Event will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker