mentions

Trump speaks at RNC Midterm Convention (Night 2)

What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?

Held

Thu, Sep 10

9:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at the Republican National Committee Midterm Convention Closing in Dallas, Texas

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +2 later

15 said 23 not said of 38 words

Not held 27 of 321 past Trump events, 12 of 181 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 387 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore34¢ All18/75 24% Speeches / ceremonies15/44 34% Official speeches / ceremonies65/387 17% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore17¢ All49/137 36% Speeches / ceremonies34/76 45% Official speeches / ceremonies119/387 31% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore23¢ All21/68 31% Speeches / ceremonies10/39 26% Official speeches / ceremonies51/387 13% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore29¢ All21/57 37% Speeches / ceremonies16/45 36% Official speeches / ceremonies56/387 14% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore22¢ All26/71 37% Speeches / ceremonies19/43 44% Official speeches / ceremonies47/387 12% N Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore68¢ All196/268 73% Speeches / ceremonies110/153 72% Official speeches / ceremonies246/387 64% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore4¢ All8/76 11% Speeches / ceremonies2/36 6% Official speeches / ceremonies30/387 8% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore40¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies3/3 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies65/387 17% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore29¢ All42/67 63% Speeches / ceremonies26/40 65% Official speeches / ceremonies206/387 53% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore80¢ All29/63 46% Speeches / ceremonies15/31 48% Official speeches / ceremonies53/387 14% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore3¢ All9/203 4% Speeches / ceremonies7/119 6% Official speeches / ceremonies19/387 5% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore31¢ All2/7 29% Speeches / ceremonies2/6 33% Official speeches / ceremonies42/387 11% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore89¢ All127/185 69% Speeches / ceremonies67/103 65% Official speeches / ceremonies209/387 54% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore11¢ All8/32 25% Speeches / ceremonies5/21 24% Official speeches / ceremonies35/387 9% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore55¢ All14/36 39% Speeches / ceremonies10/18 56% Official speeches / ceremonies20/387 5% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore32¢ All10/13 77% Speeches / ceremonies4/6 67% Official speeches / ceremonies73/387 19% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore64¢ All54/102 53% Speeches / ceremonies31/57 54% Official speeches / ceremonies139/387 36% N Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore14¢ All10/27 37% Speeches / ceremonies6/16 38% Official speeches / ceremonies54/387 14% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore40¢ All19/68 28% Speeches / ceremonies13/37 35% Official speeches / ceremonies68/387 18% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore39¢ All20/37 54% Speeches / ceremonies15/25 60% Official speeches / ceremonies61/387 16% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore65¢ All125/241 52% Speeches / ceremonies89/138 64% Official speeches / ceremonies157/387 41% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore12¢ All41/82 50% Speeches / ceremonies17/47 36% Official speeches / ceremonies109/387 28% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore17¢ All3/14 21% Speeches / ceremonies2/10 20% Official speeches / ceremonies46/387 12% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore42¢ All16/29 55% Speeches / ceremonies12/14 86% Official speeches / ceremonies84/387 22% Y N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore79¢ All17/39 44% Speeches / ceremonies7/18 39% Official speeches / ceremonies90/387 23% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore20¢ All5/13 38% Speeches / ceremonies5/11 45% Official speeches / ceremonies102/387 26% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore64¢ All52/86 60% Speeches / ceremonies27/43 63% Official speeches / ceremonies191/387 49% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore79¢ All41/84 49% Speeches / ceremonies27/48 56% Official speeches / ceremonies103/387 27% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore13¢ All0/4 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies41/387 11% N N N N
NO Before startBefore15¢ All2/3 67% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies23/387 6% N Y Y
YES Before startBefore49¢ All22/48 46% Speeches / ceremonies7/19 37% Official speeches / ceremonies39/387 10% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore4¢ All3/6 50% Speeches / ceremonies3/5 60% Official speeches / ceremonies14/387 4% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore13¢ All6/11 55% Speeches / ceremonies6/9 67% Official speeches / ceremonies49/387 13% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore69¢ All75/143 52% Speeches / ceremonies41/79 52% Official speeches / ceremonies111/387 29% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore28¢ All25/61 41% Speeches / ceremonies18/41 44% Official speeches / ceremonies87/387 22% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore62¢ All39/110 35% Speeches / ceremonies22/66 33% Official speeches / ceremonies85/387 22% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore62¢ All71/91 78% Speeches / ceremonies50/59 85% Official speeches / ceremonies211/387 55% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore39¢ All29/39 74% Speeches / ceremonies20/27 74% Official speeches / ceremonies126/387 33% Y N Y Y N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of RNC Midterm Convention, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the RNC Midterm Convention using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the RNC Midterm Convention will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker