mentions

Trump holds a Small Business Summit

What will Trump say during his Small Business Summit?

Held

Mon, May 4

3:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at the White House Small Business Summit

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Also now Trump +2 later

19 said 12 not said of 31 words

Not held 20 of 211 past Trump events, 10 of 126 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 313 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore51¢ All23/49 47% Speeches / ceremonies18/33 55% Official speeches / ceremonies96/313 31% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore45¢ All8/23 35% Speeches / ceremonies6/17 35% Official speeches / ceremonies42/313 13% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore32¢ All1/6 17% Speeches / ceremonies1/6 17% Official speeches / ceremonies25/313 8% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore41¢ All13/36 36% Speeches / ceremonies9/28 32% Official speeches / ceremonies33/313 11% Y N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore82¢ All129/172 75% Speeches / ceremonies75/103 73% Official speeches / ceremonies200/313 64% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore93¢ All16/23 70% Speeches / ceremonies14/18 78% Official speeches / ceremonies86/313 27% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore62¢ All69/105 66% Speeches / ceremonies44/69 64% Official speeches / ceremonies162/313 52% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore18¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies59/313 19% N N
NO Before startBefore3¢ All5/109 5% Speeches / ceremonies5/71 7% Official speeches / ceremonies17/313 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore81¢ All78/105 74% Speeches / ceremonies43/62 69% Official speeches / ceremonies170/313 54% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore40¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies8/313 3% —
YES Before startBefore83¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies127/313 41% N Y
YES Before startBefore84¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies68/313 22% Y
YES Before startBefore68¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies130/313 42% Y N
NO Before startBefore43¢ All6/20 30% Speeches / ceremonies6/14 43% Official speeches / ceremonies58/313 19% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All14/20 70% Speeches / ceremonies11/15 73% Official speeches / ceremonies49/313 16% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore69¢ All81/147 55% Speeches / ceremonies58/90 64% Official speeches / ceremonies121/313 39% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore77¢ All14/28 50% Speeches / ceremonies9/18 50% Official speeches / ceremonies139/313 44% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore70¢ All36/53 68% Speeches / ceremonies23/37 62% Official speeches / ceremonies119/313 38% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore24¢ All13/21 62% Speeches / ceremonies7/14 50% Official speeches / ceremonies88/313 28% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore49¢ All9/14 64% Speeches / ceremonies7/8 88% Official speeches / ceremonies131/313 42% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore10¢ All5/11 45% Speeches / ceremonies4/7 57% Official speeches / ceremonies74/313 24% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore16¢ All10/19 53% Speeches / ceremonies6/12 50% Official speeches / ceremonies47/313 15% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore72¢ All15/23 65% Speeches / ceremonies8/12 67% Official speeches / ceremonies144/313 46% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore16¢ All1/8 13% Speeches / ceremonies0/4 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies17/313 5% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore38¢ All9/16 56% Speeches / ceremonies6/11 55% Official speeches / ceremonies42/313 13% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore81¢ All29/48 60% Speeches / ceremonies19/33 58% Official speeches / ceremonies77/313 25% Y Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore81¢ All81/115 70% Speeches / ceremonies53/72 74% Official speeches / ceremonies174/313 56% Y Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore97¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies102/313 33% —
NO Before startBefore17¢ All9/33 27% Speeches / ceremonies7/24 29% Official speeches / ceremonies63/313 20% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore80¢ All62/76 82% Speeches / ceremonies44/51 86% Official speeches / ceremonies171/313 55% Y Y Y Y Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • Promotional content aired during the event will count, but advertisements will not.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Small Business Summit, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Small Business Summit will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Small Business Summit will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
Promotional content aired during the event will count, but advertisements will not.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker