mentions

Trump speaks at RNC Midterm Convention (Night 1)

What will Trump say during the RNC Midterm Convention (Night 1)?

Held

Wed, Sep 9

9:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at the Republican National Committee Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Bernie Sanders Trump +2 later

21 said 13 not said of 34 words

Not held 27 of 318 past Trump events, 12 of 179 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 386 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore87¢ All17/72 24% Speeches / ceremonies14/42 33% Official speeches / ceremonies64/386 17% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore57¢ All49/134 37% Speeches / ceremonies34/74 46% Official speeches / ceremonies119/386 31% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore83¢ All21/65 32% Speeches / ceremonies10/37 27% Official speeches / ceremonies51/386 13% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore49¢ All20/56 36% Speeches / ceremonies15/44 34% Official speeches / ceremonies55/386 14% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore45¢ All25/69 36% Speeches / ceremonies18/41 44% Official speeches / ceremonies46/386 12% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore96¢ All194/265 73% Speeches / ceremonies108/151 72% Official speeches / ceremonies245/386 63% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore52¢ All2/6 33% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies64/386 17% Y N Y N N
YES Before startBefore80¢ All40/64 63% Speeches / ceremonies25/38 66% Official speeches / ceremonies205/386 53% N Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore95¢ All27/60 45% Speeches / ceremonies14/29 48% Official speeches / ceremonies52/386 13% N N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore60¢ All1/6 17% Speeches / ceremonies1/5 20% Official speeches / ceremonies41/386 11% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore38¢ All8/31 26% Speeches / ceremonies5/20 25% Official speeches / ceremonies35/386 9% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore78¢ All13/35 37% Speeches / ceremonies9/17 53% Official speeches / ceremonies19/386 5% N Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore87¢ All10/12 83% Speeches / ceremonies4/5 80% Official speeches / ceremonies73/386 19% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore67¢ All9/26 35% Speeches / ceremonies5/15 33% Official speeches / ceremonies53/386 14% N N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore77¢ All18/66 27% Speeches / ceremonies12/35 34% Official speeches / ceremonies67/386 17% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore82¢ All19/34 56% Speeches / ceremonies14/23 61% Official speeches / ceremonies60/386 16% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore36¢ All40/80 50% Speeches / ceremonies17/46 37% Official speeches / ceremonies109/386 28% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore68¢ All3/13 23% Speeches / ceremonies2/9 22% Official speeches / ceremonies46/386 12% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore78¢ All15/28 54% Speeches / ceremonies11/13 85% Official speeches / ceremonies83/386 22% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore93¢ All16/37 43% Speeches / ceremonies6/16 38% Official speeches / ceremonies89/386 23% Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore70¢ All5/12 42% Speeches / ceremonies5/10 50% Official speeches / ceremonies102/386 26% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore31¢ All21/49 43% Speeches / ceremonies6/22 27% Official speeches / ceremonies76/386 20% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore13¢ All1/17 6% Speeches / ceremonies1/12 8% Official speeches / ceremonies18/386 5% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore96¢ All50/83 60% Speeches / ceremonies26/41 63% Official speeches / ceremonies190/386 49% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore93¢ All38/81 47% Speeches / ceremonies25/46 54% Official speeches / ceremonies102/386 26% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore26¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies41/386 11% N N N
NO Before startBefore61¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies23/386 6% Y Y
YES Before startBefore86¢ All21/45 47% Speeches / ceremonies6/17 35% Official speeches / ceremonies38/386 10% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore11¢ All3/5 60% Speeches / ceremonies3/4 75% small n Official speeches / ceremonies14/386 4% Y Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore56¢ All5/10 50% Speeches / ceremonies5/8 63% Official speeches / ceremonies48/386 12% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore69¢ All24/60 40% Speeches / ceremonies17/40 43% Official speeches / ceremonies86/386 22% N Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore91¢ All38/107 36% Speeches / ceremonies21/64 33% Official speeches / ceremonies84/386 22% Y N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore93¢ All28/38 74% Speeches / ceremonies19/26 73% Official speeches / ceremonies125/386 32% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore19¢ All8/25 32% Speeches / ceremonies5/18 28% Official speeches / ceremonies26/386 7% N N Y N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of RNC Midterm Convention (Night 1), then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the RNC Midterm Convention (Night 1) using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the RNC Midterm Convention (Night 1) will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker