mentions

Trump signs an executive order

What will Trump say during his announcement?

Held

Mon, Aug 10

2:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks on Signing an Executive Order on Childhood Vaccine Schedule Recommendations and an Exchange With Reporters

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +2 later

8 said 21 not said of 29 words

Not held 26 of 300 past Trump events, 11 of 169 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 374 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore30¢ All11/57 19% Speeches / ceremonies11/34 32% Official speeches / ceremonies61/374 16% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore22¢ All47/119 39% Speeches / ceremonies32/66 48% Official speeches / ceremonies116/374 31% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore20¢ All3/10 30% Speeches / ceremonies2/8 25% Official speeches / ceremonies66/374 18% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore25¢ All17/52 33% Speeches / ceremonies9/32 28% Official speeches / ceremonies49/374 13% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore32¢ All20/55 36% Speeches / ceremonies15/43 35% Official speeches / ceremonies51/374 14% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore35¢ All23/58 40% Speeches / ceremonies16/34 47% Official speeches / ceremonies45/374 12% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore64¢ All186/249 75% Speeches / ceremonies104/143 73% Official speeches / ceremonies239/374 64% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore17¢ All8/61 13% Speeches / ceremonies2/28 7% Official speeches / ceremonies30/374 8% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore54¢ All32/49 65% Speeches / ceremonies21/30 70% Official speeches / ceremonies198/374 53% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore50¢ All20/47 43% Speeches / ceremonies12/23 52% Official speeches / ceremonies49/374 13% Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore5¢ All9/187 5% Speeches / ceremonies7/111 6% Official speeches / ceremonies19/374 5% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore23¢ All3/9 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/6 17% Official speeches / ceremonies21/374 6% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore56¢ All70/106 66% Speeches / ceremonies45/68 66% Official speeches / ceremonies222/374 59% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore33¢ All48/87 55% Speeches / ceremonies28/50 56% Official speeches / ceremonies135/374 36% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore38¢ All21/37 57% Speeches / ceremonies14/22 64% Official speeches / ceremonies161/374 43% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore23¢ All16/53 30% Speeches / ceremonies12/30 40% Official speeches / ceremonies66/374 18% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore39¢ All16/59 27% Speeches / ceremonies6/29 21% Official speeches / ceremonies25/374 7% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore42¢ All119/224 53% Speeches / ceremonies86/130 66% Official speeches / ceremonies152/374 41% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore56¢ All33/44 75% Speeches / ceremonies16/24 67% Official speeches / ceremonies102/374 27% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore39¢ All39/74 53% Speeches / ceremonies17/43 40% Official speeches / ceremonies106/374 28% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore69¢ All16/36 44% Speeches / ceremonies6/15 40% Official speeches / ceremonies87/374 23% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore56¢ All40/67 60% Speeches / ceremonies22/33 67% Official speeches / ceremonies183/374 49% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore9¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies56/374 15% N Y N
YES Before startBefore47¢ All15/33 45% Speeches / ceremonies4/12 33% Official speeches / ceremonies35/374 9% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore51¢ All64/126 51% Speeches / ceremonies37/71 52% Official speeches / ceremonies104/374 28% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore37¢ All21/55 38% Speeches / ceremonies16/37 43% Official speeches / ceremonies82/374 22% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore45¢ All111/165 67% Speeches / ceremonies71/99 72% Official speeches / ceremonies204/374 55% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore32¢ All32/95 34% Speeches / ceremonies19/59 32% Official speeches / ceremonies81/374 22% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore33¢ All29/46 63% Speeches / ceremonies19/26 73% Official speeches / ceremonies216/374 58% N N Y N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • For the purposes of this market, “next White House livestream” refers to the first livestream on the White House main YouTube channel (@WhiteHouse) after August 10th, 2026 at 7:00 am ET.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of next White House livestream, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the next White House livestream will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the next White House livestream will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
For the purposes of this market, “next White House livestream” refers to the first livestream on the White House main YouTube channel (@WhiteHouse) after August 10th, 2026 at 7:00 am ET. The livestream will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is present during a livestream, but does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Additional source agency streams can be used in the event of technical outages or if the White House ends the stream prior to the conclusion of the event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Cases

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