mentions

Trump hosts July 4th rally

What will Trump say during his July 4th rally?

Held

Sat, Jul 4

7:00 PM ET /

Trump

Rally

Official transcript Remarks at an Independence Day Celebration

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Also now Trump +2 later

10 said 25 not said of 35 words

Not held 24 of 262 past Trump events, 0 of 4 rallies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Rallies Official rallies · 2 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore43¢ All37/85 44% Rallies0/1 0% small n Official rallies0/2 0% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore66¢ All14/37 38% Rallies3/3 100% small n Official rallies2/2 100% N N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore72¢ All5/14 36% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies2/2 100% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore49¢ All19/51 37% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies1/2 50% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore29¢ All15/33 45% Rallies0/1 0% small n Official rallies1/2 50% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore37¢ All5/10 50% Rallies1/2 50% small n Official rallies1/2 50% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore87¢ All9/19 47% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies2/2 100% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore5¢ All6/153 4% Rallies0/2 0% small n Official rallies0/2 0% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore65¢ All101/143 71% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies1/2 50% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore32¢ All8/19 42% Rallies2/3 67% small n Official rallies1/2 50% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore28¢ All7/14 50% Rallies0/1 0% small n Official rallies0/2 0% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore56¢ All37/62 60% Rallies2/2 100% small n Official rallies2/2 100% N N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore66¢ All15/23 65% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies2/2 100% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore34¢ All12/37 32% Rallies0/2 0% small n Official rallies0/2 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore58¢ All6/13 46% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies1/2 50% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore26¢ All17/28 61% Rallies0/1 0% small n Official rallies1/2 50% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore19¢ All6/23 26% Rallies0/1 0% small n Official rallies0/2 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore92¢ All106/190 56% Rallies2/2 100% small n Official rallies2/2 100% Y N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore88¢ All6/7 86% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies2/2 100% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore48¢ All21/23 91% Rallies— Official rallies1/2 50% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore15¢ All1/8 13% Rallies1/2 50% small n Official rallies1/2 50% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore69¢ All5/14 36% Rallies2/2 100% small n Official rallies2/2 100% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore35¢ All4/15 27% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies1/2 50% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore82¢ All27/44 61% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies2/2 100% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore38¢ All5/9 56% Rallies0/1 0% small n Official rallies0/2 0% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore42¢ All26/57 46% Rallies1/2 50% small n Official rallies1/2 50% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore35¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies1/2 50% —
YES Before startBefore70¢ All6/7 86% Rallies— Official rallies0/2 0% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore28¢ All10/20 50% Rallies2/3 67% small n Official rallies1/2 50% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore78¢ All55/92 60% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies2/2 100% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore45¢ All14/39 36% Rallies1/2 50% small n Official rallies1/2 50% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore34¢ All23/64 36% Rallies2/2 100% small n Official rallies2/2 100% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore78¢ All70/90 78% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies2/2 100% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore76¢ All16/22 73% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies2/2 100% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore60¢ All5/26 19% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies1/2 50% N N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official rallies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Rallies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of July 4th TRIBUTE TO AMERICA rally, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the July 4th TRIBUTE TO AMERICA rally will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the July 4th TRIBUTE TO AMERICA rally will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker