mentions

Trump speaks at the Congressional Ball

What will Trump say during his remarks at the Congressional Ball?

Held

Thu, Dec 11

8:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at the Congressional Ball

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Also now Trump +2 later

9 said 14 not said of 23 words

Not held 8 of 109 past Trump events, 4 of 62 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 232 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore40¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies62/232 27% Y
NO Before startBefore52¢ All7/15 47% Speeches / ceremonies4/8 50% Official speeches / ceremonies19/232 8% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore23¢ All4/11 36% Speeches / ceremonies3/10 30% Official speeches / ceremonies29/232 13% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore26¢ All1/4 25% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies40/232 17% Y N N N
YES Before startBefore76¢ All5/13 38% Speeches / ceremonies3/8 38% Official speeches / ceremonies19/232 8% N N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore62¢ All73/89 82% Speeches / ceremonies41/51 80% Official speeches / ceremonies151/232 65% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore35¢ All43/58 74% Speeches / ceremonies29/39 74% Official speeches / ceremonies126/232 54% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore7¢ All2/36 6% Speeches / ceremonies2/21 10% Official speeches / ceremonies12/232 5% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore15¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/232 1% N N N
YES Before startBefore54¢ All2/4 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies18/232 8% Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore59¢ All27/40 68% Speeches / ceremonies16/24 67% Official speeches / ceremonies132/232 57% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore85¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies1/232 0% —
NO Before startBefore30¢ All5/9 56% Speeches / ceremonies2/5 40% Official speeches / ceremonies18/232 8% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore62¢ All41/67 61% Speeches / ceremonies30/38 79% Official speeches / ceremonies84/232 36% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore29¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies46/232 20% Y
YES Before startBefore37¢ All19/37 51% Speeches / ceremonies13/20 65% Official speeches / ceremonies87/232 38% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore13¢ All0/9 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/3 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/232 1% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore94¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/232 1% Y
NO Before startBefore15¢ All8/16 50% Speeches / ceremonies4/8 50% Official speeches / ceremonies35/232 15% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore29¢ All2/6 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies21/232 9% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore27¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies40/232 17% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore65¢ All46/61 75% Speeches / ceremonies27/34 79% Official speeches / ceremonies126/232 54% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore69¢ All28/31 90% Speeches / ceremonies18/20 90% Official speeches / ceremonies125/232 54% Y Y Y Y Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count.
  • Previous recordings aired during this event will count.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of remarks at the Congressional Ball, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the remarks at the Congressional Ball will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the remarks at the Congressional Ball will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count. Previous recordings aired during this event will count. If this event is not opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event this market will resolve to no.

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