mentions

Trump makes an announcement

What will Trump say during his announcement?

Held

Fri, Dec 19

1:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

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Also now Trump +2 later

5 said 16 not said of 21 words

Not held 10 of 116 past Trump events, 6 of 69 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 241 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore87¢ All9/19 47% Speeches / ceremonies6/12 50% Official speeches / ceremonies22/241 9% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore35¢ All6/13 46% Speeches / ceremonies5/8 63% Official speeches / ceremonies72/241 30% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore29¢ All5/13 38% Speeches / ceremonies4/12 33% Official speeches / ceremonies30/241 12% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore81¢ All77/94 82% Speeches / ceremonies45/56 80% Official speeches / ceremonies156/241 65% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore65¢ All43/61 70% Speeches / ceremonies29/42 69% Official speeches / ceremonies129/241 54% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore63¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies9/241 4% Y Y
NO Before startBefore12¢ All2/41 5% Speeches / ceremonies2/26 8% Official speeches / ceremonies12/241 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore98¢ All16/23 70% Speeches / ceremonies6/9 67% Official speeches / ceremonies94/241 39% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore45¢ All6/9 67% Speeches / ceremonies5/8 63% Official speeches / ceremonies24/241 10% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore58¢ All2/15 13% Speeches / ceremonies0/9 0% Official speeches / ceremonies1/241 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore17¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies4/241 2% N Y
NO Before startBefore48¢ All43/72 60% Speeches / ceremonies32/43 74% Official speeches / ceremonies88/241 37% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore47¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies32/241 13% N N N
NO Before startBefore62¢ All20/38 53% Speeches / ceremonies14/21 67% Official speeches / ceremonies91/241 38% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore23¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/241 0% —
NO Before startBefore13¢ All0/12 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/6 0% Official speeches / ceremonies3/241 1% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore23¢ All27/39 69% Speeches / ceremonies16/23 70% Official speeches / ceremonies76/241 32% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore39¢ All12/25 48% Speeches / ceremonies4/13 31% Official speeches / ceremonies57/241 24% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore36¢ All1/8 13% Speeches / ceremonies1/6 17% Official speeches / ceremonies16/241 7% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore48¢ All13/25 52% Speeches / ceremonies7/17 41% Official speeches / ceremonies94/241 39% N Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore67¢ All0/4 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/3 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies46/241 19% N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Announcement on December 19th, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Announcement on December 19th will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Announcement on December 19th will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count. Previous recordings aired during this event will not count. If this event is not opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event this market will resolve to no.

Cases

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