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Bilateral Meeting with the President of the Republic of Lebanon

What will Trump say during his announcement?

Held

Tue, Jul 21

11:15 AM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks in an Exchange With Reporters Prior to a Meeting With President Joseph Aoun of Lebanon and an Exchange With Reporters

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now JD Vance +1 later

11 said 14 not said of 25 words

Not held 24 of 276 past Trump events, 11 of 155 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 358 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore29¢ All7/38 18% Speeches / ceremonies7/22 32% Official speeches / ceremonies57/358 16% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore24¢ All41/99 41% Speeches / ceremonies28/54 52% Official speeches / ceremonies110/358 31% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies2/5 40% Official speeches / ceremonies62/358 17% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore39¢ All16/44 36% Speeches / ceremonies9/23 39% Official speeches / ceremonies38/358 11% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore45¢ All168/228 74% Speeches / ceremonies93/130 72% Official speeches / ceremonies227/358 63% N Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore66¢ All22/30 73% Speeches / ceremonies14/18 78% Official speeches / ceremonies190/358 53% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore26¢ All11/28 39% Speeches / ceremonies7/12 58% Official speeches / ceremonies44/358 12% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore9¢ All7/166 4% Speeches / ceremonies6/97 6% Official speeches / ceremonies18/358 5% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore22¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies21/358 6% N Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore50¢ All65/95 68% Speeches / ceremonies42/59 71% Official speeches / ceremonies215/358 60% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore36¢ All39/69 57% Speeches / ceremonies21/38 55% Official speeches / ceremonies128/358 36% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore36¢ All17/26 65% Speeches / ceremonies11/14 79% Official speeches / ceremonies156/358 44% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore63¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies51/358 14% N N N
NO Before startBefore50¢ All16/51 31% Speeches / ceremonies6/22 27% Official speeches / ceremonies24/358 7% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore41¢ All108/202 53% Speeches / ceremonies77/116 66% Official speeches / ceremonies143/358 40% N Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore64¢ All24/29 83% Speeches / ceremonies9/12 75% Official speeches / ceremonies94/358 26% N Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore79¢ All33/61 54% Speeches / ceremonies13/33 39% Official speeches / ceremonies102/358 28% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore55¢ All13/31 42% Speeches / ceremonies4/11 36% Official speeches / ceremonies82/358 23% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore66¢ All29/49 59% Speeches / ceremonies15/23 65% Official speeches / ceremonies172/358 48% N Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore35¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies17/358 5% Y N
NO Before startBefore38¢ All58/105 55% Speeches / ceremonies34/58 59% Official speeches / ceremonies101/358 28% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore64¢ All99/146 68% Speeches / ceremonies64/88 73% Official speeches / ceremonies195/358 54% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore17¢ All24/75 32% Speeches / ceremonies15/46 33% Official speeches / ceremonies77/358 22% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore40¢ All29/44 66% Speeches / ceremonies19/24 79% Official speeches / ceremonies205/358 57% Y N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore25¢ All6/33 18% Speeches / ceremonies4/19 21% Official speeches / ceremonies53/358 15% N N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • For the purposes of this market, “next White House livestream” refers to the first livestream on the White House main YouTube channel (@WhiteHouse) after June 20th, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (excluding Remarks in Marietta, Georgia).

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of next White House livestream (excluding Remarks in Marietta, Georgia), then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the next White House livestream (excluding Remarks in Marietta, Georgia) will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the next White House livestream (excluding Remarks in Marietta, Georgia) will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
For the purposes of this market, “next White House livestream” refers to the first livestream on the White House main YouTube channel (@WhiteHouse) after June 20th, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (excluding Remarks in Marietta, Georgia). The livestream will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is present during a livestream, but does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Additional source agency streams can be used in the event of technical outages or if the White House ends the stream prior to the conclusion of the event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Cases

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