mentions

Trump delivers remarks in Arlington

What will Trump say during his remarks in Arlington?

Held

Thu, Sep 10

1:30 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks on Signing the Hershel 'Woody' Williams National Medal of Honor Monument Location Act in Arlington, Texas

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Also now Bernie Sanders Trump +2 later

4 said 22 not said of 26 words

Not held 27 of 319 past Trump events, 12 of 180 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 387 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore15¢ All18/73 25% Speeches / ceremonies15/43 35% Official speeches / ceremonies65/387 17% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore5¢ All49/135 36% Speeches / ceremonies34/75 45% Official speeches / ceremonies119/387 31% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore12¢ All21/66 32% Speeches / ceremonies10/38 26% Official speeches / ceremonies51/387 13% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore14¢ All26/70 37% Speeches / ceremonies19/42 45% Official speeches / ceremonies47/387 12% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore40¢ All195/266 73% Speeches / ceremonies109/152 72% Official speeches / ceremonies246/387 64% Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore3¢ All8/74 11% Speeches / ceremonies2/35 6% Official speeches / ceremonies30/387 8% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore14¢ All41/65 63% Speeches / ceremonies26/39 67% Official speeches / ceremonies206/387 53% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore45¢ All28/61 46% Speeches / ceremonies15/30 50% Official speeches / ceremonies53/387 14% Y N N Y N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All9/202 4% Speeches / ceremonies7/118 6% Official speeches / ceremonies19/387 5% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore53¢ All126/183 69% Speeches / ceremonies67/102 66% Official speeches / ceremonies209/387 54% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore37¢ All74/112 66% Speeches / ceremonies47/72 65% Official speeches / ceremonies230/387 59% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore21¢ All53/100 53% Speeches / ceremonies30/56 54% Official speeches / ceremonies139/387 36% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore9¢ All19/67 28% Speeches / ceremonies13/36 36% Official speeches / ceremonies68/387 18% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore9¢ All20/35 57% Speeches / ceremonies15/24 63% Official speeches / ceremonies61/387 16% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore42¢ All125/239 52% Speeches / ceremonies89/137 65% Official speeches / ceremonies157/387 41% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore11¢ All4/23 17% Speeches / ceremonies2/9 22% Official speeches / ceremonies75/387 19% N Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore72¢ All15/23 65% Speeches / ceremonies9/11 82% Official speeches / ceremonies178/387 46% Y N N Y N
NO Before startBefore22¢ All17/38 45% Speeches / ceremonies7/17 41% Official speeches / ceremonies90/387 23% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore17¢ All17/42 40% Speeches / ceremonies6/18 33% Official speeches / ceremonies92/387 24% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore25¢ All51/84 61% Speeches / ceremonies27/42 64% Official speeches / ceremonies191/387 49% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore20¢ All39/82 48% Speeches / ceremonies26/47 55% Official speeches / ceremonies103/387 27% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore8¢ All22/46 48% Speeches / ceremonies7/18 39% Official speeches / ceremonies39/387 10% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore37¢ All74/141 52% Speeches / ceremonies41/78 53% Official speeches / ceremonies111/387 29% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore11¢ All115/177 65% Speeches / ceremonies74/105 70% Official speeches / ceremonies212/387 55% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore15¢ All39/108 36% Speeches / ceremonies22/65 34% Official speeches / ceremonies85/387 22% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore87¢ All3/6 50% Speeches / ceremonies3/6 50% Official speeches / ceremonies42/387 11% N N N Y Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
  • Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Remarks in Arlington, Texas originally scheduled for September 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Remarks in Arlington, Texas originally scheduled for September 10, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Remarks in Arlington, Texas originally scheduled for September 10, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker