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Trump signs the National Defense Authorization Act

What will Trump say during the National Defense Authorization Act signing?

Not held (all words NO)

Thu, Dec 18

6:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now ABC World News +1 later

0 said 22 not said of 22 words

Not held 9 of 115 past Trump events, 5 of 68 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 240 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore85¢ All77/94 82% Speeches / ceremonies45/56 80% Official speeches / ceremonies156/240 65% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore67¢ All43/61 70% Speeches / ceremonies29/42 69% Official speeches / ceremonies129/240 54% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore68¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies9/240 4% Y Y
NO Before startBefore44¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies8/240 3% N N
NO Before startBefore81¢ All35/47 74% Speeches / ceremonies22/30 73% Official speeches / ceremonies121/240 50% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore81¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies12/240 5% N N
NO Before startBefore80¢ All1/7 14% Speeches / ceremonies1/6 17% Official speeches / ceremonies4/240 2% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore24¢ All1/9 11% Speeches / ceremonies0/6 0% Official speeches / ceremonies16/240 7% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore53¢ All12/24 50% Speeches / ceremonies6/14 43% Official speeches / ceremonies77/240 32% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore69¢ All6/9 67% Speeches / ceremonies5/8 63% Official speeches / ceremonies23/240 10% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore43¢ All43/72 60% Speeches / ceremonies32/43 74% Official speeches / ceremonies87/240 36% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore60¢ All12/22 55% Speeches / ceremonies8/14 57% Official speeches / ceremonies82/240 34% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore68¢ All3/6 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies104/240 43% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore65¢ All27/39 69% Speeches / ceremonies16/23 70% Official speeches / ceremonies76/240 32% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore60¢ All13/25 52% Speeches / ceremonies8/15 53% Official speeches / ceremonies112/240 47% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore89¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies160/240 67% —
NO Before startBefore77¢ All49/65 75% Speeches / ceremonies30/38 79% Official speeches / ceremonies131/240 55% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore16¢ All2/4 50% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies4/240 2% N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore50¢ All1/12 8% Speeches / ceremonies0/8 0% Official speeches / ceremonies40/240 17% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore80¢ All32/35 91% Speeches / ceremonies22/24 92% Official speeches / ceremonies132/240 55% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore70¢ All13/25 52% Speeches / ceremonies7/17 41% Official speeches / ceremonies93/240 39% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore42¢ All3/20 15% Speeches / ceremonies1/13 8% Official speeches / ceremonies29/240 12% N N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of National Defense Authorization Act signing, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the National Defense Authorization Act signing will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the National Defense Authorization Act signing will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count. Previous recordings aired during this event will not count. If this event is not opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event this market will resolve to no.

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