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Trump at RNC Midterm Convention

Who will Trump mention during the RNC Midterm Convention?

Held

Wed, Sep 9

5:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

2 official transcripts
Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now ABC World News +1 later

10 said 8 not said of 18 words

Not held 27 of 317 past Trump events, 12 of 178 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 386 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore57¢ All24/68 35% Speeches / ceremonies17/40 43% Official speeches / ceremonies46/386 12% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore15¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies2/386 1% N
YES Before startBefore73¢ All1/6 17% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies22/386 6% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore54¢ All4/4 100% Speeches / ceremonies4/4 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies21/386 5% Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore21¢ All2/15 13% Speeches / ceremonies1/13 8% Official speeches / ceremonies42/386 11% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore16¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies16/386 4% —
YES Before startBefore30¢ All6/27 22% Speeches / ceremonies4/16 25% Official speeches / ceremonies17/386 4% N Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore57¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies28/386 7% Y N N
NO Before startBefore20¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies22/386 6% —
NO Before startBefore27¢ All18/40 45% Speeches / ceremonies8/19 42% Official speeches / ceremonies93/386 24% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore34¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies58/386 15% —
YES Before startBefore23¢ All6/20 30% Speeches / ceremonies2/13 15% Official speeches / ceremonies25/386 6% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore82¢ All11/26 42% Speeches / ceremonies8/17 47% Official speeches / ceremonies61/386 16% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore80¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies2/386 1% N
YES Before startBefore30¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies51/386 13% N
NO Before startBefore21¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies2/386 1% —
YES Before startBefore74¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies50/386 13% —
NO Before startBefore22¢ All1/12 8% Speeches / ceremonies1/11 9% Official speeches / ceremonies6/386 2% N Y N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
  • Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of RNC Midterm Convention, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the RNC Midterm Convention using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the RNC Midterm Convention will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker