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Trump holds a Military Mother's Day Event

What will Trump say during the Military Mother's Day Event?

Held

Wed, May 6

12:30 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at a Celebration of Military Mothers and an Exchange With Reporters

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Also now +1 later

9 said 10 not said of 19 words

Not held 20 of 213 past Trump events, 10 of 128 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 315 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore45¢ All14/38 37% Speeches / ceremonies10/30 33% Official speeches / ceremonies34/315 11% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore33¢ All131/174 75% Speeches / ceremonies77/105 73% Official speeches / ceremonies202/315 64% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore34¢ All71/107 66% Speeches / ceremonies46/71 65% Official speeches / ceremonies164/315 52% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore2¢ All5/111 5% Speeches / ceremonies5/73 7% Official speeches / ceremonies17/315 5% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore34¢ All80/107 75% Speeches / ceremonies45/64 70% Official speeches / ceremonies172/315 55% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore37¢ All44/65 68% Speeches / ceremonies29/42 69% Official speeches / ceremonies189/315 60% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore24¢ All4/10 40% Speeches / ceremonies2/6 33% Official speeches / ceremonies6/315 2% N Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore81¢ All4/7 57% Speeches / ceremonies2/5 40% Official speeches / ceremonies49/315 16% Y N Y N N
YES Before startBefore43¢ All83/149 56% Speeches / ceremonies60/92 65% Official speeches / ceremonies123/315 39% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore94¢ All37/54 69% Speeches / ceremonies24/38 63% Official speeches / ceremonies121/315 38% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore29¢ All14/23 61% Speeches / ceremonies8/16 50% Official speeches / ceremonies89/315 28% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore68¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies15/315 5% N Y N
YES Before startBefore84¢ All59/85 69% Speeches / ceremonies31/48 65% Official speeches / ceremonies117/315 37% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore29¢ All10/20 50% Speeches / ceremonies6/13 46% Official speeches / ceremonies48/315 15% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore40¢ All16/24 67% Speeches / ceremonies9/13 69% Official speeches / ceremonies146/315 46% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore49¢ All30/49 61% Speeches / ceremonies20/34 59% Official speeches / ceremonies79/315 25% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore34¢ All63/77 82% Speeches / ceremonies45/52 87% Official speeches / ceremonies172/315 55% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore14¢ All21/39 54% Speeches / ceremonies13/28 46% Official speeches / ceremonies108/315 34% N N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore59¢ All9/14 64% Speeches / ceremonies7/11 64% Official speeches / ceremonies88/315 28% Y Y Y Y Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Military Mother's Day Event, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Military Mother's Day Event will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Military Mother's Day Event will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker