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Trump holds Executive Order signing

What will Trump say during his Executive Order signing?

Held

Mon, Aug 3

1:30 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks on Signing the Executive Order Establishing the President's Military Spouse Commission and an Exchange With Reporters

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now +1 later

12 said 19 not said of 31 words

Not held 26 of 292 past Trump events, 11 of 164 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 369 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore27¢ All10/50 20% Speeches / ceremonies10/30 33% Official speeches / ceremonies60/369 16% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore41¢ All44/111 40% Speeches / ceremonies31/61 51% Official speeches / ceremonies115/369 31% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore17¢ All16/46 35% Speeches / ceremonies8/28 29% Official speeches / ceremonies48/369 13% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore29¢ All21/52 40% Speeches / ceremonies14/30 47% Official speeches / ceremonies43/369 12% N N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore71¢ All181/242 75% Speeches / ceremonies102/139 73% Official speeches / ceremonies236/369 64% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore60¢ All57/84 68% Speeches / ceremonies32/47 68% Official speeches / ceremonies204/369 55% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore12¢ All8/59 14% Speeches / ceremonies2/26 8% Official speeches / ceremonies30/369 8% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore51¢ All28/41 68% Speeches / ceremonies19/25 76% Official speeches / ceremonies196/369 53% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore35¢ All16/41 39% Speeches / ceremonies10/20 50% Official speeches / ceremonies47/369 13% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore4¢ All8/180 4% Speeches / ceremonies7/106 7% Official speeches / ceremonies19/369 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore69¢ All112/164 68% Speeches / ceremonies61/93 66% Official speeches / ceremonies199/369 54% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore39¢ All11/34 32% Speeches / ceremonies2/14 14% Official speeches / ceremonies46/369 12% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore24¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies15/369 4% N N N
NO Before startBefore68¢ All69/102 68% Speeches / ceremonies45/65 69% Official speeches / ceremonies221/369 60% Y N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore46¢ All45/80 56% Speeches / ceremonies26/46 57% Official speeches / ceremonies132/369 36% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore12¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies2/369 1% N
NO Before startBefore73¢ All20/32 63% Speeches / ceremonies13/19 68% Official speeches / ceremonies159/369 43% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore16¢ All15/47 32% Speeches / ceremonies11/27 41% Official speeches / ceremonies65/369 18% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore42¢ All116/216 54% Speeches / ceremonies84/125 67% Official speeches / ceremonies150/369 41% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore81¢ All30/38 79% Speeches / ceremonies14/20 70% Official speeches / ceremonies100/369 27% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore48¢ All38/70 54% Speeches / ceremonies16/40 40% Official speeches / ceremonies105/369 28% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore76¢ All33/59 56% Speeches / ceremonies18/28 64% Official speeches / ceremonies179/369 49% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore20¢ All31/69 45% Speeches / ceremonies20/40 50% Official speeches / ceremonies94/369 25% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore16¢ All11/33 33% Speeches / ceremonies5/17 29% Official speeches / ceremonies44/369 12% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore37¢ All62/119 52% Speeches / ceremonies36/67 54% Official speeches / ceremonies103/369 28% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore36¢ All17/51 33% Speeches / ceremonies13/34 38% Official speeches / ceremonies79/369 21% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore56¢ All106/157 68% Speeches / ceremonies68/94 72% Official speeches / ceremonies201/369 54% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore23¢ All30/89 34% Speeches / ceremonies18/55 33% Official speeches / ceremonies80/369 22% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore8¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies0/369 0% N N
NO Before startBefore26¢ All29/57 51% Speeches / ceremonies13/32 41% Official speeches / ceremonies114/369 31% Y N Y N N
YES Before startBefore11¢ All7/22 32% Speeches / ceremonies4/15 27% Official speeches / ceremonies25/369 7% N Y Y N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of THE PRESIDENT signs an Executive Order, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the THE PRESIDENT signs an Executive Order will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the THE PRESIDENT signs an Executive Order will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify — Donald Trump must be speaking in an official capacity for the Contract to resolve Yes (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, or unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic, do not qualify).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker