mentions

Trump delivers remarks at the Burning Hills Amphitheatre

What will Trump say during his remarks at the Burning Hills Amphitheatre?

Held

Wed, Jul 1

3:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library in Medora, North Dakota

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Also now Trump +2 later

15 said 18 not said of 33 words

Not held 24 of 258 past Trump events, 11 of 149 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 347 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore37¢ All7/30 23% Speeches / ceremonies7/18 39% Official speeches / ceremonies56/347 16% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore60¢ All36/82 44% Speeches / ceremonies26/48 54% Official speeches / ceremonies108/347 31% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore59¢ All3/12 25% Speeches / ceremonies2/11 18% Official speeches / ceremonies27/347 8% N Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore50¢ All13/30 43% Speeches / ceremonies7/18 39% Official speeches / ceremonies36/347 10% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore54¢ All157/212 74% Speeches / ceremonies89/124 72% Official speeches / ceremonies220/347 63% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore61¢ All14/18 78% Speeches / ceremonies9/12 75% Official speeches / ceremonies183/347 53% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore47¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies66/347 19% Y
YES Before startBefore51¢ All7/17 41% Speeches / ceremonies4/8 50% Official speeches / ceremonies38/347 11% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore4¢ All5/149 3% Speeches / ceremonies5/91 5% Official speeches / ceremonies17/347 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore76¢ All99/139 71% Speeches / ceremonies54/81 67% Official speeches / ceremonies187/347 54% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore46¢ All8/18 44% Speeches / ceremonies5/14 36% Official speeches / ceremonies35/347 10% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore60¢ All6/11 55% Speeches / ceremonies4/6 67% Official speeches / ceremonies10/347 3% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore75¢ All57/84 68% Speeches / ceremonies38/54 70% Official speeches / ceremonies208/347 60% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore74¢ All35/58 60% Speeches / ceremonies19/33 58% Official speeches / ceremonies125/347 36% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore70¢ All3/3 100% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies75/347 22% Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore47¢ All12/35 34% Speeches / ceremonies9/22 41% Official speeches / ceremonies61/347 18% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore59¢ All17/28 61% Speeches / ceremonies12/19 63% Official speeches / ceremonies118/347 34% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore45¢ All4/8 50% Speeches / ceremonies2/6 33% Official speeches / ceremonies48/347 14% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore77¢ All103/186 55% Speeches / ceremonies73/110 66% Official speeches / ceremonies138/347 40% N Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore75¢ All41/59 69% Speeches / ceremonies25/40 63% Official speeches / ceremonies146/347 42% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore43¢ All26/49 53% Speeches / ceremonies12/29 41% Official speeches / ceremonies99/347 29% N Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore62¢ All9/12 75% Speeches / ceremonies6/6 100% Official speeches / ceremonies74/347 21% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore67¢ All5/12 42% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies81/347 23% N N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore75¢ All43/68 63% Speeches / ceremonies21/39 54% Official speeches / ceremonies130/347 37% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore60¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies11/347 3% N N Y
NO Before startBefore57¢ All26/55 47% Speeches / ceremonies15/31 48% Official speeches / ceremonies88/347 25% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore52¢ All6/18 33% Speeches / ceremonies0/7 0% Official speeches / ceremonies27/347 8% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore80¢ All53/88 60% Speeches / ceremonies31/52 60% Official speeches / ceremonies97/347 28% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore68¢ All12/36 33% Speeches / ceremonies9/25 36% Official speeches / ceremonies72/347 21% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore62¢ All93/138 67% Speeches / ceremonies61/85 72% Official speeches / ceremonies189/347 54% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore50¢ All22/60 37% Speeches / ceremonies14/41 34% Official speeches / ceremonies75/347 22% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore38¢ All5/18 28% Speeches / ceremonies2/11 18% Official speeches / ceremonies21/347 6% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore44¢ All5/22 23% Speeches / ceremonies3/15 20% Official speeches / ceremonies51/347 15% N Y N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of THE PRESIDENT delivers Remarks Burning Hills Amphitheatre, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the THE PRESIDENT delivers Remarks Burning Hills Amphitheatre will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the THE PRESIDENT delivers Remarks Burning Hills Amphitheatre will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

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