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Trump delivers remarks at the Congressional Picnic

What will Trump say during his remarks at the Congressional Picnic?

Held

Tue, May 19

7:15 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at the Congressional Picnic

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now JD Vance

13 said 15 not said of 28 words

Not held 21 of 225 past Trump events, 10 of 134 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 324 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore90¢ All14/20 70% Speeches / ceremonies12/16 75% Official speeches / ceremonies86/324 27% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore19¢ All2/14 14% Speeches / ceremonies2/9 22% Official speeches / ceremonies49/324 15% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore9¢ All25/58 43% Speeches / ceremonies19/37 51% Official speeches / ceremonies97/324 30% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore68¢ All16/40 40% Speeches / ceremonies12/32 38% Official speeches / ceremonies38/324 12% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore23¢ All136/185 74% Speeches / ceremonies79/111 71% Official speeches / ceremonies205/324 63% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore50¢ All51/77 66% Speeches / ceremonies28/43 65% Official speeches / ceremonies179/324 55% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore54¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies170/324 52% Y
NO Before startBefore2¢ All5/121 4% Speeches / ceremonies5/78 6% Official speeches / ceremonies17/324 5% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore14¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies16/324 5% Y N N
NO Before startBefore85¢ All82/115 71% Speeches / ceremonies47/70 67% Official speeches / ceremonies174/324 54% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore61¢ All47/70 67% Speeches / ceremonies32/46 70% Official speeches / ceremonies193/324 60% N N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore39¢ All22/40 55% Speeches / ceremonies12/26 46% Official speeches / ceremonies111/324 34% N Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore40¢ All2/3 67% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies134/324 41% Y Y N
NO Before startBefore4¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies2/324 1% N N N
NO Before startBefore16¢ All15/23 65% Speeches / ceremonies12/18 67% Official speeches / ceremonies50/324 15% Y N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore70¢ All88/160 55% Speeches / ceremonies64/98 65% Official speeches / ceremonies127/324 39% N Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore42¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies147/324 45% Y Y
YES Before startBefore71¢ All7/12 58% Speeches / ceremonies4/5 80% Official speeches / ceremonies129/324 40% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore9¢ All15/28 54% Speeches / ceremonies9/20 45% Official speeches / ceremonies90/324 28% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore30¢ All1/4 25% Speeches / ceremonies0/3 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies15/324 5% N N Y N
YES Before startBefore60¢ All65/94 69% Speeches / ceremonies34/53 64% Official speeches / ceremonies122/324 38% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore44¢ All18/32 56% Speeches / ceremonies9/16 56% Official speeches / ceremonies148/324 46% N Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore17¢ All1/9 11% Speeches / ceremonies0/5 0% Official speeches / ceremonies18/324 6% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore64¢ All34/59 58% Speeches / ceremonies22/39 56% Official speeches / ceremonies82/324 25% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore19¢ All85/124 69% Speeches / ceremonies55/77 71% Official speeches / ceremonies179/324 55% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore12¢ All5/12 42% Speeches / ceremonies4/8 50% Official speeches / ceremonies67/324 21% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore10¢ All11/39 28% Speeches / ceremonies8/29 28% Official speeches / ceremonies65/324 20% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore14¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies4/324 1% N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Remarks at the Congressional Picnic, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Remarks at the Congressional Picnic will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Remarks at the Congressional Picnic will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker