mentions

Trump holds Tele-Rally with Barry Moore

What will Trump say during his Tele-Rally with Barry Moore?

Held

Mon, May 18

8:00 PM ET /

Trump

Tele-rally

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Also now Trump Trump +1 later

6 said 14 not said of 20 words

Not held 21 of 224 past Trump events, 0 of 5 tele-rallies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Tele-rallies Official tele-rallies · 11 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore24¢ All2/13 15% Tele-rallies0/1 0% small n Official tele-rallies3/11 27% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore13¢ All25/57 44% Tele-rallies— Official tele-rallies0/11 0% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore28¢ All8/24 33% Tele-rallies— Official tele-rallies1/11 9% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore68¢ All135/184 73% Tele-rallies3/5 60% Official tele-rallies6/11 55% N Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore82¢ All50/76 66% Tele-rallies4/4 100% small n Official tele-rallies10/11 91% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore38¢ All1/4 25% Tele-rallies0/3 0% small n Official tele-rallies0/11 0% Y N N N
NO Before startBefore21¢ All— Tele-rallies— Official tele-rallies2/11 18% —
NO Before startBefore1¢ All5/120 4% Tele-rallies— Official tele-rallies0/11 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore84¢ All82/114 72% Tele-rallies4/4 100% small n Official tele-rallies9/11 82% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore41¢ All10/25 40% Tele-rallies3/4 75% small n Official tele-rallies5/11 45% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore70¢ All18/25 72% Tele-rallies3/4 75% small n Official tele-rallies6/11 55% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore61¢ All88/159 55% Tele-rallies1/4 25% small n Official tele-rallies1/11 9% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore65¢ All11/34 32% Tele-rallies3/3 100% small n Official tele-rallies3/11 27% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore39¢ All7/11 64% Tele-rallies0/1 0% small n Official tele-rallies0/11 0% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore37¢ All5/5 100% Tele-rallies— Official tele-rallies1/11 9% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore34¢ All2/5 40% Tele-rallies0/1 0% small n Official tele-rallies1/11 9% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore26¢ All18/31 58% Tele-rallies0/1 0% small n Official tele-rallies5/11 45% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore66¢ All24/51 47% Tele-rallies5/5 100% Official tele-rallies7/11 64% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore39¢ All34/58 59% Tele-rallies0/1 0% small n Official tele-rallies2/11 18% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore87¢ All10/12 83% Tele-rallies4/4 100% small n Official tele-rallies9/11 82% N Y Y Y Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official tele-rallies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Tele-rallies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • Additional content not included in the original call will not count.
  • The entirety of content within the original call will be used for resolution.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Tele-Rally with Barry Moore, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Tele-Rally with Barry Moore will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Tele-Rally with Barry Moore will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
Additional content not included in the original call will not count.
The entirety of content within the original call will be used for resolution.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker