mentions

Trump joins China State Banquet

What will Trump say during his China State Banquet?

Held

Thu, May 14

6:00 AM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at a State Banquet With President Xi Jinping of China in Beijing, China

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Also now Trump +1 later

0 said 38 not said of 38 words

Not held 21 of 219 past Trump events, 10 of 132 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 321 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore19¢ All24/52 46% Speeches / ceremonies19/35 54% Official speeches / ceremonies97/321 30% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore7¢ All133/179 74% Speeches / ceremonies79/109 72% Official speeches / ceremonies205/321 64% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore8¢ All50/75 67% Speeches / ceremonies28/42 67% Official speeches / ceremonies179/321 56% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore5¢ All7/27 26% Speeches / ceremonies2/13 15% Official speeches / ceremonies29/321 9% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore4¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies56/321 17% N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All5/115 4% Speeches / ceremonies5/76 7% Official speeches / ceremonies17/321 5% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore4¢ All81/112 72% Speeches / ceremonies46/68 68% Official speeches / ceremonies173/321 54% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore4¢ All10/24 42% Speeches / ceremonies4/12 33% Official speeches / ceremonies107/321 33% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore7¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/321 0% —
NO Before startBefore8¢ All47/69 68% Speeches / ceremonies32/45 71% Official speeches / ceremonies193/321 60% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore4¢ All21/37 57% Speeches / ceremonies12/24 50% Official speeches / ceremonies111/321 35% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore7¢ All3/8 38% Speeches / ceremonies3/4 75% small n Official speeches / ceremonies53/321 17% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore2¢ All6/17 35% Speeches / ceremonies4/9 44% Official speeches / ceremonies47/321 15% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore15¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies1/321 0% —
NO Before startBefore2¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/321 0% N
NO Before startBefore6¢ All86/154 56% Speeches / ceremonies63/96 66% Official speeches / ceremonies126/321 39% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All15/30 50% Speeches / ceremonies10/19 53% Official speeches / ceremonies141/321 44% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore17¢ All3/6 50% Speeches / ceremonies3/3 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies128/321 40% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore4¢ All14/26 54% Speeches / ceremonies8/18 44% Official speeches / ceremonies89/321 28% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore4¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies30/321 9% N
NO Before startBefore8¢ All5/17 29% Speeches / ceremonies5/12 42% Official speeches / ceremonies44/321 14% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore13¢ All13/21 62% Speeches / ceremonies9/12 75% Official speeches / ceremonies109/321 34% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore8¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies22/321 7% N N Y
NO Before startBefore9¢ All61/89 69% Speeches / ceremonies33/51 65% Official speeches / ceremonies121/321 38% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore10¢ All16/27 59% Speeches / ceremonies9/15 60% Official speeches / ceremonies148/321 46% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore2¢ All14/33 42% Speeches / ceremonies8/18 44% Official speeches / ceremonies89/321 28% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore7¢ All10/26 38% Speeches / ceremonies5/16 31% Official speeches / ceremonies43/321 13% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore9¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies3/321 1% N
NO Before startBefore6¢ All16/30 53% Speeches / ceremonies10/18 56% Official speeches / ceremonies136/321 42% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore6¢ All2/4 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies6/321 2% N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore6¢ All31/53 58% Speeches / ceremonies21/37 57% Official speeches / ceremonies81/321 25% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore4¢ All1/6 17% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies21/321 7% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore11¢ All82/119 69% Speeches / ceremonies54/75 72% Official speeches / ceremonies178/321 55% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore9¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies16/321 5% —
NO Before startBefore2¢ All1/12 8% Speeches / ceremonies1/9 11% Official speeches / ceremonies18/321 6% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore13¢ All64/80 80% Speeches / ceremonies46/54 85% Official speeches / ceremonies173/321 54% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore11¢ All26/38 68% Speeches / ceremonies17/20 85% Official speeches / ceremonies190/321 59% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore3¢ All4/13 31% Speeches / ceremonies1/6 17% Official speeches / ceremonies18/321 6% N N N N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of State Banquet with the President of the People's Republic of China, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the State Banquet with the President of the People's Republic of China will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the State Banquet with the President of the People's Republic of China will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker