mentions

Trump holds a news conference

What will Trump say during his Iran press conference?

Held

Mon, Apr 6

1:00 PM ET /

Trump

Press conference

Official transcript The President's News Conference

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Also now Trump +2 later

22 said 15 not said of 37 words

Not held 17 of 191 past Trump events, 2 of 13 press conferences

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Press conferences Official press conferences · 17 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore18¢ All8/20 40% Press conferences0/1 0% small n Official press conferences0/17 0% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore27¢ All0/5 0% Press conferences— Official press conferences0/17 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore63¢ All1/3 33% Press conferences— Official press conferences1/17 6% Y N N
YES Before startBefore66¢ All120/157 76% Press conferences8/10 80% Official press conferences14/17 82% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore74¢ All4/15 27% Press conferences1/2 50% small n Official press conferences6/17 35% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore3¢ All5/96 5% Press conferences0/2 0% small n Official press conferences0/17 0% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore93¢ All3/3 100% Press conferences— Official press conferences17/17 100% Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore68¢ All67/91 74% Press conferences5/5 100% Official press conferences8/17 47% N N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore81¢ All3/8 38% Press conferences— Official press conferences1/17 6% Y N Y N N
YES Before startBefore74¢ All— Press conferences— Official press conferences0/17 0% —
YES Before startBefore65¢ All13/24 54% Press conferences1/2 50% small n Official press conferences5/17 29% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore68¢ All8/14 57% Press conferences— Official press conferences6/17 35% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore58¢ All0/1 0% Press conferences— Official press conferences2/17 12% N
YES Before startBefore59¢ All3/6 50% Press conferences— Official press conferences7/17 41% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore79¢ All4/14 29% Press conferences— Official press conferences1/17 6% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore46¢ All73/131 56% Press conferences3/6 50% Official press conferences7/17 41% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore90¢ All1/1 100% Press conferences— Official press conferences7/17 41% Y
YES Before startBefore83¢ All6/11 55% Press conferences— Official press conferences10/17 59% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore24¢ All0/1 0% Press conferences— Official press conferences0/17 0% N
NO Before startBefore42¢ All4/12 33% Press conferences1/1 100% small n Official press conferences7/17 41% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore58¢ All6/7 86% Press conferences— Official press conferences3/17 18% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore54¢ All2/2 100% Press conferences— Official press conferences3/17 18% Y Y
YES Before startBefore65¢ All14/26 54% Press conferences2/4 50% small n Official press conferences8/17 47% N N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore86¢ All6/8 75% Press conferences1/1 100% small n Official press conferences11/17 65% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore96¢ All52/77 68% Press conferences7/8 88% Official press conferences12/17 71% Y N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore84¢ All7/12 58% Press conferences— Official press conferences9/17 53% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore94¢ All18/39 46% Press conferences1/5 20% Official press conferences12/17 71% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore25¢ All1/2 50% Press conferences— Official press conferences2/17 12% Y N
NO Before startBefore24¢ All2/6 33% Press conferences— Official press conferences5/17 29% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore94¢ All1/1 100% Press conferences— Official press conferences2/17 12% Y
YES Before startBefore30¢ All— Press conferences— Official press conferences0/17 0% —
NO Before startBefore29¢ All0/1 0% Press conferences— Official press conferences1/17 6% N
YES Before startBefore68¢ All4/10 40% Press conferences— Official press conferences6/17 35% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore68¢ All23/34 68% Press conferences— Official press conferences13/17 76% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore28¢ All0/3 0% Press conferences— Official press conferences0/17 0% N N N
YES Before startBefore73¢ All5/10 50% Press conferences— Official press conferences7/17 41% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All0/1 0% Press conferences— Official press conferences3/17 18% N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official press conferences: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Press conferences. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of News Conference, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the News Conference will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the News Conference will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker