mentions

Trump delivers remarks at the Greek Independence Day Celebration

What will Trump say during his remarks at the Greek Independence Day Celebration?

Held

Thu, Mar 26

4:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at a Greek Independence Day Celebration

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Also now Trump +2 later

7 said 18 not said of 25 words

Not held 16 of 183 past Trump events, 8 of 109 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 292 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore73¢ All7/10 70% Speeches / ceremonies6/8 75% Official speeches / ceremonies71/292 24% Y Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore84¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies16/292 5% —
YES Before startBefore43¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies2/292 1% —
YES Before startBefore57¢ All7/24 29% Speeches / ceremonies5/19 26% Official speeches / ceremonies25/292 9% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore30¢ All116/151 77% Speeches / ceremonies68/91 75% Official speeches / ceremonies187/292 64% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore2¢ All4/92 4% Speeches / ceremonies4/59 7% Official speeches / ceremonies15/292 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore77¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies2/292 1% —
NO Before startBefore93¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies16/292 5% —
NO Before startBefore45¢ All64/85 75% Speeches / ceremonies35/50 70% Official speeches / ceremonies157/292 54% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore28¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/3 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies9/292 3% N N N
NO Before startBefore11¢ All5/10 50% Speeches / ceremonies3/6 50% Official speeches / ceremonies97/292 33% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore33¢ All4/6 67% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies41/292 14% N N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore62¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies25/292 9% —
NO Before startBefore12¢ All1/9 11% Speeches / ceremonies0/6 0% Official speeches / ceremonies1/292 0% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore25¢ All70/125 56% Speeches / ceremonies50/75 67% Official speeches / ceremonies111/292 38% N Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore68¢ All32/44 73% Speeches / ceremonies20/29 69% Official speeches / ceremonies102/292 35% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore24¢ All4/9 44% Speeches / ceremonies2/7 29% Official speeches / ceremonies72/292 25% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore27¢ All13/22 59% Speeches / ceremonies2/9 22% Official speeches / ceremonies58/292 20% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore57¢ All8/13 62% Speeches / ceremonies6/7 86% Official speeches / ceremonies117/292 40% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore38¢ All51/74 69% Speeches / ceremonies26/41 63% Official speeches / ceremonies100/292 34% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore26¢ All15/34 44% Speeches / ceremonies7/19 37% Official speeches / ceremonies97/292 33% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore15¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/292 0% —
NO Before startBefore28¢ All20/57 35% Speeches / ceremonies9/30 30% Official speeches / ceremonies38/292 13% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore9¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies17/292 6% Y N
NO Before startBefore6¢ All0/4 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/4 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies2/292 1% N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • Video of the Remarks at the Greek Independence Day Celebration will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Remarks at the Greek Independence Day Celebration will be used.
  • Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
  • The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
  • If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
  • The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
  • If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
  • If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Remarks at the Greek Independence Day Celebration, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Remarks at the Greek Independence Day Celebration will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Remarks at the Greek Independence Day Celebration will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

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