mentions

Trump hosts a Bilateral Meeting with Germany

What will Trump say during his Bilateral Meeting with Germany?

Held

Tue, Mar 3

11:15 AM ET /

Trump

Meeting

Official transcript Remarks Prior to a Meeting With Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany and an Exchange With Reporters

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Also now Trump +2 later

16 said 14 not said of 30 words

Not held 16 of 171 past Trump events, 5 of 29 meetings

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Meetings Official meetings · 91 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore— All— Meetings— Official meetings24/91 26% —
NO Before startBefore18¢ All0/4 0% Meetings— Official meetings8/91 9% N N N N
YES Before startBefore61¢ All107/139 77% Meetings20/22 91% Official meetings59/91 65% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore— All59/86 69% Meetings10/14 71% Official meetings52/91 57% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore2¢ All3/80 4% Meetings0/12 0% Official meetings1/91 1% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore62¢ All59/77 77% Meetings10/14 71% Official meetings41/91 45% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore— All25/39 64% Meetings5/5 100% Official meetings12/91 13% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore36¢ All1/1 100% Meetings— Official meetings0/91 0% Y
NO Before startBefore19¢ All8/18 44% Meetings1/1 100% small n Official meetings6/91 7% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore20¢ All— Meetings— Official meetings0/91 0% —
NO Before startBefore28¢ All67/113 59% Meetings9/20 45% Official meetings18/91 20% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore7¢ All10/29 34% Meetings1/5 20% Official meetings9/91 10% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore93¢ All22/33 67% Meetings1/2 50% small n Official meetings37/91 41% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore48¢ All13/26 50% Meetings3/6 50% Official meetings28/91 31% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore19¢ All0/1 0% Meetings— Official meetings0/91 0% N
YES Before startBefore34¢ All3/3 100% Meetings— Official meetings0/91 0% Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All0/2 0% Meetings— Official meetings0/91 0% N N
YES Before startBefore69¢ All11/20 55% Meetings5/5 100% Official meetings38/91 42% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore61¢ All1/2 50% Meetings— Official meetings26/91 29% N Y
YES Before startBefore79¢ All47/69 68% Meetings10/12 83% Official meetings37/91 41% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore33¢ All1/1 100% Meetings— Official meetings9/91 10% Y
YES Before startBefore57¢ All8/24 33% Meetings2/4 50% small n Official meetings28/91 31% N Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore14¢ All1/2 50% Meetings— Official meetings10/91 11% N Y
YES Before startBefore71¢ All67/91 74% Meetings15/18 83% Official meetings54/91 59% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore48¢ All3/5 60% Meetings0/1 0% small n Official meetings8/91 9% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore— All2/10 20% Meetings1/1 100% small n Official meetings8/91 9% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore— All54/62 87% Meetings8/9 89% Official meetings51/91 56% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore64¢ All19/34 56% Meetings4/4 100% small n Official meetings57/91 63% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore11¢ All0/1 0% Meetings— Official meetings0/91 0% N
YES Before startBefore15¢ All2/7 29% Meetings0/2 0% small n Official meetings9/91 10% N N Y N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official meetings: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Meetings. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • For the purposes of this market, “next White House announcement by Donald Trump” refers to the first qualifying livestream on the White House main YouTube channel (@WhiteHouse) after March 2nd, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET.
  • The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity; if Donald Trump is present during a livestream, but does not speak in an official capacity, the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
  • If Donald Trump is not present during a livestream posted by the White House the market will not qualify.
  • Additional source agency streams can be used in the event of technical outages or if the White House ends the stream prior to the conclusion of the event.
  • Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the livestream will not count.
  • Press gaggles will not qualify.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of next White House (YouTube) live announcement by Donald Trump, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the next White House (YouTube) live announcement by Donald Trump will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the next White House (YouTube) live announcement by Donald Trump will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Plural nouns used as or within a proper nouns (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included. Please see full rules for more details. For the purposes of this market, “next White House announcement by Donald Trump” refers to the first qualifying livestream on the White House main YouTube channel (@WhiteHouse) after March 2nd, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET. The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity; if Donald Trump is present during a livestream, but does not speak in an official capacity, the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). If Donald Trump is not present during a livestream posted by the White House the market will not qualify. Additional source agency streams can be used in the event of technical outages or if the White House ends the stream prior to the conclusion of the event. For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event. Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the livestream will not count. Press gaggles will not qualify.

Cases

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