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Trump delivers State of the Union

What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?

Held

Tue, Feb 24

9:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union

Also now +1 later

16 said 22 not said of 38 words

Not held 16 of 166 past Trump events, 8 of 95 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 272 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore47¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies23/272 8% Y
NO Before startBefore18¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies5/272 2% —
NO Before startBefore34¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies15/272 6% —
YES Before startBefore78¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies66/272 24% N N
NO Before startBefore82¢ All3/6 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies79/272 29% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore46¢ All4/8 50% Speeches / ceremonies3/5 60% Official speeches / ceremonies43/272 16% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore95¢ All59/85 69% Speeches / ceremonies37/53 70% Official speeches / ceremonies146/272 54% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore22¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies11/272 4% N
YES Before startBefore48¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies46/272 17% —
NO Before startBefore54¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies5/272 2% Y
NO Before startBefore23¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies17/272 6% —
NO Before startBefore23¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies12/272 4% Y
NO Before startBefore4¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/272 0% —
YES Before startBefore34¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies43/272 16% —
YES Before startBefore74¢ All3/5 60% Speeches / ceremonies3/3 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies50/272 18% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore62¢ All8/17 47% Speeches / ceremonies2/8 25% Official speeches / ceremonies10/272 4% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore43¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies23/272 8% N Y
NO Before startBefore7¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies1/272 0% N N N
YES Before startBefore70¢ All7/11 64% Speeches / ceremonies4/6 67% Official speeches / ceremonies74/272 27% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore47¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies38/272 14% —
YES Before startBefore95¢ All20/30 67% Speeches / ceremonies10/17 59% Official speeches / ceremonies87/272 32% N Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore84¢ All12/24 50% Speeches / ceremonies7/13 54% Official speeches / ceremonies69/272 25% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore64¢ All5/8 63% Speeches / ceremonies3/5 60% Official speeches / ceremonies66/272 24% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore23¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies12/272 4% —
YES Before startBefore62¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies38/272 14% Y
YES Before startBefore45¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies25/272 9% N Y
YES Before startBefore97¢ All4/5 80% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies78/272 29% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore97¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies34/272 13% —
NO Before startBefore21¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies12/272 4% —
YES Before startBefore60¢ All7/12 58% Speeches / ceremonies5/6 83% Official speeches / ceremonies108/272 40% Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore13¢ All0/6 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/4 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies2/272 1% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore14¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies14/272 5% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore86¢ All15/27 56% Speeches / ceremonies9/16 56% Official speeches / ceremonies123/272 45% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore37¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies78/272 29% —
NO Before startBefore42¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies12/272 4% —
NO Before startBefore35¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies18/272 7% N Y
YES Before startBefore83¢ All18/33 55% Speeches / ceremonies11/23 48% Official speeches / ceremonies103/272 38% Y N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore96¢ All2/6 33% Speeches / ceremonies2/5 40% Official speeches / ceremonies63/272 23% Y Y N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of 2026 State of the Union, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the 2026 State of the Union will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the 2026 State of the Union will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count. Previous recordings aired during this event will not count.