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Trump holds Midterm Rally in Greenville, North Carolina

What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina?

Held

Tue, Oct 20

7:00 PM ET /

Trump

Rally

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now JD Vance

17 said 24 not said of 41 words

Not held 27 of 359 past Trump events, 0 of 19 rallies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Rallies Official rallies · 5 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore31¢ All60/173 35% Rallies5/16 31% Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All25/89 28% Rallies6/18 33% Official rallies3/5 60% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore2¢ All9/96 9% Rallies0/14 0% Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore95¢ All20/38 53% Rallies13/16 81% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore49¢ All0/1 0% Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% N
NO Before startBefore2¢ All9/235 4% Rallies0/17 0% Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore14¢ All2/23 9% Rallies1/12 8% Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore31¢ All3/16 19% Rallies1/13 8% Official rallies1/5 20% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore98¢ All17/26 65% Rallies13/13 100% Official rallies1/5 20% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore30¢ All1/3 33% Rallies0/1 0% small n Official rallies0/5 0% N Y N
YES Before startBefore72¢ All3/19 16% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies1/5 20% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore83¢ All2/2 100% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies0/5 0% Y Y
YES Before startBefore82¢ All9/10 90% Rallies2/2 100% small n Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore59¢ All1/1 100% Rallies— Official rallies1/5 20% Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All13/48 27% Rallies4/15 27% Official rallies2/5 40% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore39¢ All0/8 0% Rallies0/8 0% Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore67¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies1/5 20% —
NO Before startBefore32¢ All12/25 48% Rallies7/12 58% Official rallies2/5 40% N Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore98¢ All37/58 64% Rallies14/16 88% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore13¢ All6/9 67% Rallies2/2 100% small n Official rallies1/5 20% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore88¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies1/5 20% —
NO Before startBefore37¢ All28/82 34% Rallies6/14 43% Official rallies2/5 40% N N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore86¢ All134/262 51% Rallies4/5 80% Official rallies4/5 80% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore60¢ All16/26 62% Rallies9/14 64% Official rallies2/5 40% N N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore73¢ All11/26 42% Rallies8/13 62% Official rallies2/5 40% Y N Y N N
YES Before startBefore76¢ All18/32 56% Rallies1/2 50% small n Official rallies2/5 40% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore80¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies1/5 20% —
NO Before startBefore48¢ All11/22 50% Rallies9/13 69% Official rallies1/5 20% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore29¢ All5/17 29% Rallies0/1 0% small n Official rallies0/5 0% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore79¢ All1/1 100% Rallies— Official rallies2/5 40% Y
NO Before startBefore2¢ All2/21 10% Rallies0/9 0% Official rallies1/5 20% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore54¢ All1/1 100% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies0/5 0% Y
NO Before startBefore87¢ All11/21 52% Rallies8/14 57% Official rallies3/5 60% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore90¢ All10/18 56% Rallies7/13 54% Official rallies2/5 40% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore97¢ All39/68 57% Rallies14/15 93% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore75¢ All2/2 100% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies2/5 40% Y Y
NO Before startBefore35¢ All1/1 100% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies1/5 20% Y
YES Before startBefore95¢ All83/166 50% Rallies3/3 100% small n Official rallies5/5 100% N N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore98¢ All55/128 43% Rallies16/17 94% Official rallies4/5 80% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore40¢ All3/10 30% Rallies0/1 0% small n Official rallies2/5 40% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore19¢ All8/30 27% Rallies0/1 0% small n Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official rallies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Rallies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in Greenville, North Carolina originally scheduled for October 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Midterm Rally in Greenville, North Carolina originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Midterm Rally in Greenville, North Carolina originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker