mentions

Trump delivers remarks at Mount Rushmore

What will Trump say during his remarks at Mount Rushmore?

Held

Sat, Jul 4

10:00 AM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

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Also now Trump +2 later

11 said 24 not said of 35 words

Not held 24 of 261 past Trump events, 11 of 150 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 351 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore1¢ All7/31 23% Speeches / ceremonies7/19 37% Official speeches / ceremonies56/351 16% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All37/84 44% Speeches / ceremonies26/49 53% Official speeches / ceremonies108/351 31% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All14/36 39% Speeches / ceremonies8/23 35% Official speeches / ceremonies44/351 13% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore99¢ All4/13 31% Speeches / ceremonies3/12 25% Official speeches / ceremonies29/351 8% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All15/32 47% Speeches / ceremonies8/19 42% Official speeches / ceremonies37/351 11% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All160/215 74% Speeches / ceremonies90/125 72% Official speeches / ceremonies221/351 63% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All16/20 80% Speeches / ceremonies10/13 77% Official speeches / ceremonies184/351 52% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies66/351 19% N Y
YES Before startBefore99¢ All8/18 44% Speeches / ceremonies5/9 56% Official speeches / ceremonies40/351 11% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore99¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies19/351 5% N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All6/152 4% Speeches / ceremonies5/92 5% Official speeches / ceremonies17/351 5% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All101/142 71% Speeches / ceremonies55/82 67% Official speeches / ceremonies188/351 54% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All7/13 54% Speeches / ceremonies4/7 57% Official speeches / ceremonies10/351 3% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore99¢ All58/86 67% Speeches / ceremonies38/55 69% Official speeches / ceremonies209/351 60% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All37/61 61% Speeches / ceremonies20/34 59% Official speeches / ceremonies126/351 36% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore99¢ All3/4 75% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies76/351 22% N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies7/351 2% —
NO Before startBefore1¢ All12/36 33% Speeches / ceremonies9/23 39% Official speeches / ceremonies61/351 17% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All18/30 60% Speeches / ceremonies12/20 60% Official speeches / ceremonies118/351 34% Y N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore99¢ All5/9 56% Speeches / ceremonies3/7 43% Official speeches / ceremonies50/351 14% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All6/22 27% Speeches / ceremonies3/16 19% Official speeches / ceremonies21/351 6% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore99¢ All105/189 56% Speeches / ceremonies74/111 67% Official speeches / ceremonies140/351 40% N Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore99¢ All42/60 70% Speeches / ceremonies26/41 63% Official speeches / ceremonies148/351 42% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All10/13 77% Speeches / ceremonies7/7 100% Official speeches / ceremonies75/351 21% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore99¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies50/351 14% Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All5/13 38% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies81/351 23% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore99¢ All45/70 64% Speeches / ceremonies22/40 55% Official speeches / ceremonies132/351 38% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All26/56 46% Speeches / ceremonies15/32 47% Official speeches / ceremonies88/351 25% N Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore99¢ All6/19 32% Speeches / ceremonies0/8 0% Official speeches / ceremonies28/351 8% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All4/5 80% Speeches / ceremonies4/4 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies43/351 12% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All55/91 60% Speeches / ceremonies32/53 60% Official speeches / ceremonies98/351 28% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All14/38 37% Speeches / ceremonies10/26 38% Official speeches / ceremonies73/351 21% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All23/63 37% Speeches / ceremonies14/42 33% Official speeches / ceremonies75/351 21% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All3/5 60% Speeches / ceremonies3/5 60% Official speeches / ceremonies36/351 10% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All5/25 20% Speeches / ceremonies3/16 19% Official speeches / ceremonies51/351 15% N N N N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of remarks at Mount Rushmore, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the remarks at Mount Rushmore will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the remarks at Mount Rushmore will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker