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What will Trump say during his Address to the Nation?

Held

Time TBA

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +1 later

21 said 35 not said of 56 words

Not held 17 of 189 past Trump events, 8 of 113 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 297 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore— All8/19 42% Speeches / ceremonies6/16 38% Official speeches / ceremonies41/297 14% Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/297 0% —
NO Before startBefore— All0/4 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/3 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/297 1% N N N N
NO Before startBefore— All9/26 35% Speeches / ceremonies7/21 33% Official speeches / ceremonies29/297 10% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore— All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies23/297 8% N N
NO Before startBefore— All0/6 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/4 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies13/297 4% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore— All119/155 77% Speeches / ceremonies70/94 74% Official speeches / ceremonies191/297 64% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore— All4/14 29% Speeches / ceremonies1/5 20% Official speeches / ceremonies25/297 8% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore— All65/96 68% Speeches / ceremonies41/62 66% Official speeches / ceremonies155/297 52% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore— All5/95 5% Speeches / ceremonies5/62 8% Official speeches / ceremonies16/297 5% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore— All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies2/5 40% Official speeches / ceremonies10/297 3% N Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore— All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies224/297 75% Y
NO Before startBefore— All67/89 75% Speeches / ceremonies38/54 70% Official speeches / ceremonies161/297 54% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore— All3/15 20% Speeches / ceremonies1/9 11% Official speeches / ceremonies26/297 9% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies18/297 6% —
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies39/297 13% —
NO Before startBefore— All43/61 70% Speeches / ceremonies29/40 73% Official speeches / ceremonies177/297 60% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All2/7 29% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies5/297 2% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore— All0/5 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/5 0% Official speeches / ceremonies9/297 3% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore— All13/23 57% Speeches / ceremonies7/16 44% Official speeches / ceremonies96/297 32% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All7/13 54% Speeches / ceremonies5/9 56% Official speeches / ceremonies100/297 34% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore— All4/7 57% Speeches / ceremonies2/5 40% Official speeches / ceremonies42/297 14% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies60/297 20% —
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies51/297 17% —
NO Before startBefore— All3/5 60% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies47/297 16% Y N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All3/12 25% Speeches / ceremonies2/9 22% Official speeches / ceremonies4/297 1% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore— All71/129 55% Speeches / ceremonies51/79 65% Official speeches / ceremonies112/297 38% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies35/297 12% —
YES Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies17/297 6% —
YES Before startBefore— All5/10 50% Speeches / ceremonies3/8 38% Official speeches / ceremonies81/297 27% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies1/297 0% —
NO Before startBefore— All4/11 36% Speeches / ceremonies2/9 22% Official speeches / ceremonies72/297 24% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore— All5/6 83% Speeches / ceremonies4/5 80% Official speeches / ceremonies16/297 5% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies18/297 6% —
NO Before startBefore— All14/25 56% Speeches / ceremonies3/12 25% Official speeches / ceremonies59/297 20% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore— All6/7 86% Speeches / ceremonies3/4 75% small n Official speeches / ceremonies67/297 23% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All51/76 67% Speeches / ceremonies26/43 60% Official speeches / ceremonies103/297 35% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore— All6/11 55% Speeches / ceremonies5/8 63% Official speeches / ceremonies43/297 14% Y N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore— All17/38 45% Speeches / ceremonies9/23 39% Official speeches / ceremonies100/297 34% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies4/297 1% —
NO Before startBefore— All2/5 40% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies31/297 10% N N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies132/297 44% —
NO Before startBefore— All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies13/297 4% N N N
NO Before startBefore— All20/60 33% Speeches / ceremonies9/32 28% Official speeches / ceremonies39/297 13% N N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies15/297 5% —
YES Before startBefore— All21/36 58% Speeches / ceremonies15/27 56% Official speeches / ceremonies69/297 23% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore— All10/24 42% Speeches / ceremonies7/18 39% Official speeches / ceremonies62/297 21% Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies4/297 1% —
NO Before startBefore— All75/105 71% Speeches / ceremonies48/63 76% Official speeches / ceremonies166/297 56% N Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore— All3/9 33% Speeches / ceremonies3/6 50% Official speeches / ceremonies62/297 21% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore— All8/26 31% Speeches / ceremonies6/19 32% Official speeches / ceremonies59/297 20% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All22/33 67% Speeches / ceremonies14/17 82% Official speeches / ceremonies176/297 59% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore— All21/36 58% Speeches / ceremonies13/25 52% Official speeches / ceremonies106/297 36% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore— All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/297 1% N N
YES Before startBefore— All4/9 44% Speeches / ceremonies4/8 50% Official speeches / ceremonies79/297 27% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies18/297 6% —

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Address to the Nation, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Address to the Nation will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Address to the Nation will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker