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Trump holds Midterm Rally in Wichita, Kansas

What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas?

Held

Mon, Oct 19

7:00 PM ET /

Trump

Rally

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now JD Vance

16 said 18 not said of 34 words

Not held 27 of 357 past Trump events, 0 of 18 rallies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Rallies Official rallies · 5 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore41¢ All60/171 35% Rallies5/15 33% Official rallies0/5 0% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore63¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies2/5 40% —
NO Before startBefore18¢ All25/88 28% Rallies6/17 35% Official rallies3/5 60% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore37¢ All0/2 0% Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% N N
NO Before startBefore24¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% —
YES Before startBefore23¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% —
NO Before startBefore3¢ All9/95 9% Rallies0/13 0% Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All9/233 4% Rallies0/16 0% Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore23¢ All3/15 20% Rallies1/12 8% Official rallies1/5 20% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore75¢ All3/5 60% Rallies— Official rallies1/5 20% N Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore96¢ All16/25 64% Rallies12/12 100% Official rallies1/5 20% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore25¢ All1/2 50% Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% Y N
YES Before startBefore93¢ All1/1 100% Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% Y
NO Before startBefore27¢ All0/1 0% Rallies0/1 0% small n Official rallies0/5 0% N
YES Before startBefore98¢ All8/9 89% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All13/47 28% Rallies4/14 29% Official rallies2/5 40% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore10¢ All0/7 0% Rallies0/7 0% Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore42¢ All12/24 50% Rallies7/11 64% Official rallies2/5 40% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore97¢ All35/56 63% Rallies13/15 87% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore47¢ All28/81 35% Rallies6/13 46% Official rallies2/5 40% N Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore66¢ All16/25 64% Rallies9/13 69% Official rallies2/5 40% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore70¢ All10/25 40% Rallies7/12 58% Official rallies2/5 40% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore72¢ All11/21 52% Rallies9/12 75% Official rallies1/5 20% N Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore15¢ All22/54 41% Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore21¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% —
NO Before startBefore72¢ All11/20 55% Rallies8/13 62% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore39¢ All10/17 59% Rallies7/12 58% Official rallies2/5 40% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore97¢ All38/67 57% Rallies13/14 93% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore80¢ All1/1 100% Rallies— Official rallies2/5 40% Y
YES Before startBefore16¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies1/5 20% —
YES Before startBefore99¢ All54/127 43% Rallies15/16 94% Official rallies4/5 80% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore60¢ All3/9 33% Rallies— Official rallies2/5 40% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore29¢ All8/26 31% Rallies0/1 0% small n Official rallies4/5 80% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore29¢ All8/29 28% Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official rallies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Rallies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in Wichita, Kansas originally scheduled for October 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Midterm Rally in Wichita, Kansas originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Midterm Rally in Wichita, Kansas originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker