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Trump say delivers remarks at The Villages

What will Trump say during his remarks at The Villages?

Held

Fri, May 1

3:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks During an Event With Seniors in Middleton, Florida

Also now JD Vance

24 said 14 not said of 38 words

Not held 20 of 209 past Trump events, 10 of 124 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 311 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore49¢ All12/17 71% Speeches / ceremonies10/13 77% Official speeches / ceremonies79/311 25% N Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore25¢ All22/47 47% Speeches / ceremonies17/31 55% Official speeches / ceremonies95/311 31% Y N N Y N
NO Before startBefore42¢ All1/4 25% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies25/311 8% N N N Y
NO Before startBefore41¢ All12/34 35% Speeches / ceremonies8/26 31% Official speeches / ceremonies32/311 10% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore55¢ All2/9 22% Speeches / ceremonies1/5 20% Official speeches / ceremonies25/311 8% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore91¢ All127/170 75% Speeches / ceremonies73/101 72% Official speeches / ceremonies198/311 64% N Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore89¢ All15/22 68% Speeches / ceremonies13/17 76% Official speeches / ceremonies84/311 27% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore12¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies9/311 3% N
NO Before startBefore19¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies59/311 19% N
NO Before startBefore3¢ All5/107 5% Speeches / ceremonies5/69 7% Official speeches / ceremonies17/311 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore35¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies14/311 5% Y Y
YES Before startBefore92¢ All76/103 74% Speeches / ceremonies41/60 68% Official speeches / ceremonies168/311 54% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore35¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies4/311 1% —
YES Before startBefore83¢ All18/33 55% Speeches / ceremonies9/21 43% Official speeches / ceremonies103/311 33% N N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore73¢ All5/18 28% Speeches / ceremonies5/12 42% Official speeches / ceremonies57/311 18% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore79¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies57/311 18% N Y
YES Before startBefore25¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies44/311 14% N Y
NO Before startBefore29¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies2/6 33% Official speeches / ceremonies25/311 8% N Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore83¢ All12/18 67% Speeches / ceremonies9/13 69% Official speeches / ceremonies47/311 15% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore37¢ All4/14 29% Speeches / ceremonies3/7 43% Official speeches / ceremonies20/311 6% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore87¢ All79/145 54% Speeches / ceremonies56/88 64% Official speeches / ceremonies119/311 38% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore77¢ All5/5 100% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies67/311 22% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore45¢ All15/29 52% Speeches / ceremonies9/17 53% Official speeches / ceremonies84/311 27% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore16¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies4/311 1% —
YES Before startBefore69¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies62/311 20% Y Y
NO Before startBefore49¢ All1/7 14% Speeches / ceremonies1/7 14% Official speeches / ceremonies22/311 7% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore30¢ All4/13 31% Speeches / ceremonies2/10 20% Official speeches / ceremonies74/311 24% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore36¢ All2/6 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/5 20% Official speeches / ceremonies40/311 13% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore84¢ All57/83 69% Speeches / ceremonies29/46 63% Official speeches / ceremonies113/311 36% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore81¢ All24/46 52% Speeches / ceremonies12/27 44% Official speeches / ceremonies108/311 35% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore83¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies144/311 46% —
YES Before startBefore98¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies81/311 26% Y Y
YES Before startBefore88¢ All79/113 70% Speeches / ceremonies51/70 73% Official speeches / ceremonies172/311 55% N N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore25¢ All3/13 23% Speeches / ceremonies0/8 0% Official speeches / ceremonies34/311 11% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore89¢ All25/36 69% Speeches / ceremonies16/19 84% Official speeches / ceremonies182/311 59% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore58¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies12/311 4% Y N
YES Before startBefore79¢ All8/13 62% Speeches / ceremonies6/10 60% Official speeches / ceremonies85/311 27% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore13¢ All1/5 20% Speeches / ceremonies1/5 20% Official speeches / ceremonies47/311 15% N N N Y N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Remarks at The Villages, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Remarks at The Villages will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Remarks at The Villages will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.