mentions

Trump joins the Defense and Innovation Summit

What will Trump say during the Defense and Innovation Summit?

Held

Wed, Jul 15

3:15 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit in Carlisle, Pennsylvania

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +2 later

18 said 9 not said of 27 words

Not held 24 of 273 past Trump events, 11 of 152 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 355 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore93¢ All40/96 42% Speeches / ceremonies27/51 53% Official speeches / ceremonies109/355 31% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore71¢ All166/225 74% Speeches / ceremonies91/127 72% Official speeches / ceremonies225/355 63% N Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore87¢ All19/27 70% Speeches / ceremonies11/15 73% Official speeches / ceremonies187/355 53% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore7¢ All7/163 4% Speeches / ceremonies6/94 6% Official speeches / ceremonies18/355 5% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore76¢ All10/29 34% Speeches / ceremonies2/11 18% Official speeches / ceremonies42/355 12% N N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore74¢ All16/25 64% Speeches / ceremonies10/13 77% Official speeches / ceremonies154/355 43% N Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore22¢ All3/10 30% Speeches / ceremonies3/7 43% Official speeches / ceremonies18/355 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore55¢ All106/199 53% Speeches / ceremonies75/113 66% Official speeches / ceremonies141/355 40% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore85¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies93/355 26% Y
YES Before startBefore44¢ All32/58 55% Speeches / ceremonies12/30 40% Official speeches / ceremonies101/355 28% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore52¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies39/355 11% —
YES Before startBefore71¢ All5/19 26% Speeches / ceremonies5/13 38% Official speeches / ceremonies53/355 15% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore25¢ All1/5 20% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies26/355 7% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore61¢ All20/44 45% Speeches / ceremonies5/19 26% Official speeches / ceremonies69/355 19% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore82¢ All85/116 73% Speeches / ceremonies43/63 68% Official speeches / ceremonies144/355 41% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore82¢ All28/47 60% Speeches / ceremonies14/21 67% Official speeches / ceremonies170/355 48% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore40¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies23/355 6% N N
NO Before startBefore49¢ All0/4 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies28/355 8% N N N N
YES Before startBefore47¢ All7/10 70% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies148/355 42% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore40¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies10/355 3% N Y
NO Before startBefore62¢ All4/6 67% Speeches / ceremonies4/5 80% Official speeches / ceremonies43/355 12% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore33¢ All0/4 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/3 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies0/355 0% N N N N
NO Before startBefore53¢ All57/102 56% Speeches / ceremonies33/55 60% Official speeches / ceremonies100/355 28% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore36¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies24/355 7% Y
YES Before startBefore65¢ All97/144 67% Speeches / ceremonies62/86 72% Official speeches / ceremonies193/355 54% N Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore40¢ All2/6 33% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies8/355 2% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore77¢ All18/25 72% Speeches / ceremonies11/16 69% Official speeches / ceremonies109/355 31% N Y Y N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker