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Trump delivers a Speech to the Nation

What will Trump say during his Speech to the Nation?

Held

Thu, Jul 16

9:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Address to the Nation on Election Reforms

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now +1 later

19 said 31 not said of 50 words

Not held 24 of 274 past Trump events, 11 of 153 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 356 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore24¢ All41/97 42% Speeches / ceremonies28/52 54% Official speeches / ceremonies110/356 31% Y N Y N N
YES Before startBefore43¢ All2/6 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies61/356 17% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore21¢ All14/39 36% Speeches / ceremonies8/25 32% Official speeches / ceremonies44/356 12% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore15¢ All15/42 36% Speeches / ceremonies8/21 38% Official speeches / ceremonies37/356 10% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore6¢ All5/21 24% Speeches / ceremonies1/11 9% Official speeches / ceremonies20/356 6% N Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore70¢ All167/226 74% Speeches / ceremonies92/128 72% Official speeches / ceremonies226/356 63% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore19¢ All5/11 45% Speeches / ceremonies1/5 20% Official speeches / ceremonies18/356 5% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore10¢ All8/50 16% Speeches / ceremonies2/19 11% Official speeches / ceremonies30/356 8% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore73¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies69/356 19% —
YES Before startBefore92¢ All20/28 71% Speeches / ceremonies12/16 75% Official speeches / ceremonies188/356 53% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore54¢ All10/26 38% Speeches / ceremonies6/10 60% Official speeches / ceremonies43/356 12% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore4¢ All7/164 4% Speeches / ceremonies6/95 6% Official speeches / ceremonies18/356 5% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore56¢ All14/14 100% Speeches / ceremonies3/3 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies271/356 76% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore84¢ All105/150 70% Speeches / ceremonies56/84 67% Official speeches / ceremonies191/356 54% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore14¢ All10/30 33% Speeches / ceremonies2/12 17% Official speeches / ceremonies42/356 12% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore10¢ All7/20 35% Speeches / ceremonies4/9 44% Official speeches / ceremonies11/356 3% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore99¢ All63/93 68% Speeches / ceremonies40/57 70% Official speeches / ceremonies213/356 60% N Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore30¢ All38/67 57% Speeches / ceremonies20/36 56% Official speeches / ceremonies127/356 36% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore11¢ All9/24 38% Speeches / ceremonies5/13 38% Official speeches / ceremonies51/356 14% N Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore43¢ All12/40 30% Speeches / ceremonies9/24 38% Official speeches / ceremonies61/356 17% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore58¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies27/356 8% N
NO Before startBefore25¢ All16/49 33% Speeches / ceremonies6/20 30% Official speeches / ceremonies24/356 7% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore56¢ All107/200 54% Speeches / ceremonies76/114 67% Official speeches / ceremonies142/356 40% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore14¢ All2/16 13% Speeches / ceremonies1/5 20% Official speeches / ceremonies69/356 19% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore38¢ All24/28 86% Speeches / ceremonies9/11 82% Official speeches / ceremonies94/356 26% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore17¢ All33/59 56% Speeches / ceremonies13/31 42% Official speeches / ceremonies102/356 29% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore14¢ All1/9 11% Speeches / ceremonies0/5 0% Official speeches / ceremonies41/356 12% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore15¢ All5/16 31% Speeches / ceremonies1/6 17% Official speeches / ceremonies82/356 23% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore8¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies4/356 1% —
NO Before startBefore5¢ All2/4 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies27/356 8% N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore11¢ All21/45 47% Speeches / ceremonies6/20 30% Official speeches / ceremonies70/356 20% Y N N Y N
NO Before startBefore20¢ All13/29 45% Speeches / ceremonies4/9 44% Official speeches / ceremonies82/356 23% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore67¢ All86/117 74% Speeches / ceremonies44/64 69% Official speeches / ceremonies145/356 41% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore51¢ All51/79 65% Speeches / ceremonies24/42 57% Official speeches / ceremonies136/356 38% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore14¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies4/356 1% N
YES Before startBefore32¢ All26/58 45% Speeches / ceremonies15/33 45% Official speeches / ceremonies89/356 25% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore35¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies40/356 11% N N
YES Before startBefore28¢ All8/11 73% Speeches / ceremonies3/3 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies149/356 42% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore87¢ All9/24 38% Speeches / ceremonies1/9 11% Official speeches / ceremonies30/356 8% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore15¢ All10/23 43% Speeches / ceremonies7/14 50% Official speeches / ceremonies52/356 15% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore13¢ All2/4 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies22/356 6% Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore44¢ All57/103 55% Speeches / ceremonies33/56 59% Official speeches / ceremonies100/356 28% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore19¢ All15/45 33% Speeches / ceremonies11/28 39% Official speeches / ceremonies76/356 21% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore6¢ All2/10 20% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies24/356 7% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore18¢ All98/145 68% Speeches / ceremonies63/87 72% Official speeches / ceremonies194/356 54% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore15¢ All23/73 32% Speeches / ceremonies14/44 32% Official speeches / ceremonies76/356 21% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore12¢ All27/53 51% Speeches / ceremonies13/30 43% Official speeches / ceremonies114/356 32% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore5¢ All0/7 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/356 1% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore60¢ All19/26 73% Speeches / ceremonies12/17 71% Official speeches / ceremonies110/356 31% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore17¢ All6/32 19% Speeches / ceremonies4/18 22% Official speeches / ceremonies52/356 15% N N N N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Speech to the Nation, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Speech to the Nation will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Speech to the Nation will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker