mentions

Trump makes an announcement in the Oval Office

What will Trump say during his announcement?

Held

Mon, Sep 28

2:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks Announcing the Siting of a Mesabi Metallics Steel Manufacturing Facility in Southeastern Iowa and an Exchange With Reporters

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +2 later

12 said 17 not said of 29 words

Not held 27 of 335 past Trump events, 12 of 190 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 400 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore19¢ All19/83 23% Speeches / ceremonies16/48 33% Official speeches / ceremonies66/400 17% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore57¢ All52/150 35% Speeches / ceremonies36/84 43% Official speeches / ceremonies122/400 31% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore68¢ All205/282 73% Speeches / ceremonies115/162 71% Official speeches / ceremonies251/400 63% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore— All5/14 36% Speeches / ceremonies1/6 17% Official speeches / ceremonies29/400 7% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore87¢ All47/78 60% Speeches / ceremonies30/47 64% Official speeches / ceremonies212/400 53% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore3¢ All9/213 4% Speeches / ceremonies7/126 6% Official speeches / ceremonies19/400 5% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies1/400 0% —
YES Before startBefore72¢ All131/193 68% Speeches / ceremonies69/108 64% Official speeches / ceremonies212/400 53% N N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore71¢ All60/112 54% Speeches / ceremonies35/64 55% Official speeches / ceremonies145/400 36% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore15¢ All5/5 100% Speeches / ceremonies5/5 100% Official speeches / ceremonies52/400 13% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore9¢ All11/31 35% Speeches / ceremonies6/19 32% Official speeches / ceremonies54/400 14% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore11¢ All8/24 33% Speeches / ceremonies2/9 22% Official speeches / ceremonies12/400 3% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore16¢ All22/39 56% Speeches / ceremonies17/27 63% Official speeches / ceremonies63/400 16% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore— All22/67 33% Speeches / ceremonies10/35 29% Official speeches / ceremonies34/400 9% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore47¢ All128/252 51% Speeches / ceremonies92/145 63% Official speeches / ceremonies160/400 40% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore17¢ All2/9 22% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies65/400 16% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore55¢ All20/39 51% Speeches / ceremonies13/22 59% Official speeches / ceremonies140/400 35% N N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore90¢ All14/19 74% Speeches / ceremonies8/11 73% Official speeches / ceremonies191/400 48% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore89¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies135/400 34% N Y
NO Before startBefore— All2/8 25% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies53/400 13% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore21¢ All22/53 42% Speeches / ceremonies7/24 29% Official speeches / ceremonies78/400 20% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore84¢ All92/130 71% Speeches / ceremonies48/74 65% Official speeches / ceremonies167/400 42% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore90¢ All61/100 61% Speeches / ceremonies33/52 63% Official speeches / ceremonies196/400 49% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore39¢ All15/24 63% Speeches / ceremonies7/11 64% Official speeches / ceremonies161/400 40% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore63¢ All80/157 51% Speeches / ceremonies45/88 51% Official speeches / ceremonies114/400 29% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore65¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies2/400 1% —
YES Before startBefore89¢ All124/192 65% Speeches / ceremonies79/114 69% Official speeches / ceremonies217/400 54% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore8¢ All9/15 60% Speeches / ceremonies8/13 62% Official speeches / ceremonies20/400 5% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore31¢ All31/66 47% Speeches / ceremonies13/37 35% Official speeches / ceremonies118/400 30% N N N N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker